Well, you got a type of win. That’s for sure.
Ugly and awful defense. The dunk city by the Pilots in the middle of the first half was embarrassing. There were a few wild shots that went in for them, sure. But boy the Broncos not going to have much success spotting a team like Portland 80 points.
The bright spots, as others have mentioned, were Darlan and Knapper having their best games yet. Mahi has become a clutch player.
Lots to improve on. I’ll take 2-0 for now.
I’m happy to be a years-long holder in Ensminger stock, but I think he especially struggled with the zone. Jake was in the soft center of the zone for a bunch of possessions in the first half. The Broncos turned it over on a couple of those trying to get it in the middle. That’s mostly the guards’ fault, but Ensminger didn’t move to the ball aggressively and let his defender poke it away. No TOs on the stat sheet, but I think he shares some responsibility on a few.
When he did get the ball, he didn’t even look at the hoop half the time. He either passed it back out or made an awkward short pass to a big at the block who had no room to work.
In the second half, the coaches must have told him to take the little jumper from the free throw line if it’s there. He converted at least one of those. But he still was too tentative on the offensive end and stymied out too many possessions.
It was finally putting Mahi and Graves in the center that broke the zone because both actually were willing to take the bunny or go hard to the hoop.
Ensminger just needs to be a more confident offensive player generally. He’s an excellent playmaker–maybe the best since Podz. But he needs to be able to call his own number once in a while too.
I believe there can be consequences for accumulating a certain number of technical fouls. I thought at three in the course of a season you risk suspension from a game.
Graves was really good at this spot and honestly i thought he could have even been more aggressive.
Agree with much of the above. However, IMHO against zones we don’t seem to know where the better 3pt shooters are on the floor. We end up with Jake (30%), Darlan (30%), Knapper(25%), and Cochran (20%) too often taking the 3. Knapper had a good night last night but we need to get the ball to the better shooters. You can play the “reversion to the mean” stats for those low % guys but you end up with losses like ASU and Loyola.
I hear what you’re saying, but the problem is that this team just doesn’t have good three-point shooters. Or at least, not so far. Here is the ranking for the shooters with meaningful volume:
| Name | 3P Percentage |
|---|---|
| Hammond | 44.8% |
| Mahi | 40.6% |
| Graves | 37% |
| Ensminger | 34.5% |
| Gavalyugov | 31.7% |
| Darlan | 28.9% |
| Knapper | 27.1% |
| Cochran | 20.9% |
Obviously, you want Hammond and Mahi taking the 3P shot if at all possible. But if either of those guys isn’t open or isn’t on the floor, you’re left with one of two options: either a guy who should really only take wide open threes (Graves, Ensminger, Cochran for now) or a guard that you’re banking on mean reversion over time (Gavalyugov, Darlan, Knapper). Last year’s team could have four shooters on the floor at all time and sometimes five. No such luck with these guys so far. Maybe Normand changes that somewhat.
I agree that Hammond and Mahi should be the primary options from 3 but Darlan appears to be making strides with his shooting. Made 2 threes in each of the last 3 games (6-13). If Darlan could just somehow cut his turnovers in half then his value to the team would skyrocket.
Knapper was 42.9 percent from 3 last year and 38.5 percent the year before that so hopefully last night was more indicative of what we will see going forward.
I am more concerned about our defense than our offense. If you look at our Adjusted Defense trends, our 3 worst games have all come in the most recent 6 games. We are giving up some alarming Effective Field Goal % numbers. Since the second half of the Utah Tech game, we have been playing long stretches of really bad defense. Before that, I felt like the guys were locked in defensively pretty much every game.
But isn’t Ensminger’s 34.5% a 51.7 eFG%? Seems most coaches would take that all day.
Also, Knapper appears to be well on the way back to his historical form. Last night he was 4-7 from 3.
There were some flashes (maybe 5 minutes in aggregate) of top-notch D last night. Just need to keep that up for 40 minutes. Use the deep bench to make sure the guys don’t wear out.
Also, it seems when the Broncs apply full-court pressure, that opponent eFG rate goes down - though I don’t have specific numbers to back that up.
Yes, but on very low volume for someone playing 50+% of all available minutes. Mahi and Hammond have comparable EFGs but with a lot more shooting volume.
I’m not asking for volume-scorer Jake Ensminger. But he’s averaging shy of 7 PPG, and I think the he has the opportunities and the talent to average closer to 10-11 PPG. I would settle for Ensminger having slightly lower analytics in exchange for a few more shots since I think there are 2-3 possessions each game where he’s the player best set-up to take a shot or finish a drive, but he gives it up, usually for a lesser result. He’s a fundamentally cautious and conservative player. Not a bad thing all the time with guys like Gavalyugov, Darlan, and Oboye all being consummate risk takers when on the floor.
Last night, I think that Portland abandons the zone earlier if Ensminger played with the confidence of Graves and Mahi either taking the 8 footer (roughly a 50% shot for Ensminger) or going strong to the hoop. I don’t think Ensminger is bad by any stretch; I think he’s better than he thinks he is when he’s out on the floor.
Agree on Knapper. The early season results were a mirage. He’s a good shooter with rhythm and solid form. He’ll claw back up like Justice and O’Neil (who both had abysmal early season percentages) before him.
How about the world’s largest point guard taking 3’s!! Bukky ! Noooo