'25-'26 WCC Game 3: Pepperdine

Game Preview/Recap
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Tip-off: Friday, 7pm in the Leavey Center
TV: ESPN+
Line: Torvik: Broncos -23.7, 96% win probability; ESPN: No line, Broncos 94.5% win probability
Torvik: Broncos #42, Waves #265
(Broncos #61, Waves #286 over Last 10 Games)

Waves
Ed Schilling was almost certainly the strangest WCC hire of 2024. He hadn’t been a D1 head coach in over 20 years and was fired from his last head coaching job (at Wright State) with three years remaining on his contract. Where Lorenzo Romar at least brought eye-popping talent to Malibu–don’t ask what he did with it, please–Schilling has yet to really make a mark beyond Pepperdine’s fun WCC Tournament run last season, led by Todorovic and Moe Odum. He has a young team–only one senior and one junior are getting regular minutes. So maybe there’s hope yet for the growth of this program. Schilling seems to be a nice man and a devout Christian, which matters for Pepperdine. But his second year is looking very Lavin-esque so far: lots of youth and rotating through over a dozen players en route to a pretty moribund season.

But for Santa Clara, just remember the ghost of Moe Odum. Crush Pepperdine.

(As an aside, Pepperdine’s first WCC games are Gonzaga, SMC, and at SCU. Brutal. Someone will be writing a mean letter to Stu Jackson if the Waves lose this one.)

(Likely) Starters and Top Bench:

Height + Position Player Name Torvik Adj. Efficiency PPG Other Stats
6-2 Point Guard Styles Phipps 1.4 11.7 6.3 rebs; 5.1 asts; 1 stls; 3 TOs; 25% from 3P
6-5 Guard Javon Cooley 3.1 13.3 5.0 rebs; 92.3% FTs; 36% from 3P
6-6 Wing Aaron Clark 0.9 13.3 3.5 rebs; 2.9 asts; 1.5 stls; 2.5 TOs
6-9 Forward Yonatan Levy 0.5 5.4 4.3 rebs
6-9 Forward Pavle Stosic -0.3 4.1 3.6 rebs
6-10 Center Danilo Dozic 0.5 11.3 2.5 rebs; 33.3% from 3P
6-6 Wing Luka Vudragovic 0 5.1 87.5% FTs

Pepperdine just hasn’t found any sort of efficient offense so far this year. They have good ball movement, but lots of turnovers. Their guards are athletic and long but mostly cannot shoot. Their most prolific shooter from the arc is their center, Dozic, who converts a reasonable percentage. He and Javon Cooley are the only decent 3P shooters on any volume. Pepperdine doesn’t rebound especially well, and they do not force TOs. In sum, the Waves are not good. In fact, Torvik rates them as the third-worst Bronco opponent this season. But then again…Loyola-Chicago was the worst. Laugh with me! Hahahahahaha

Santa Clara knows that Pepperdine is TO-prone and a poor shooting team. SCU will only lose if they give up easy cuts and drives inside or if the Waves go on a total heater. Keep the interior defense solid and eliminate passing lanes. Pepperdine will gift wrap the ball if the Broncos keep the pressure up. Phipps is a potential nightmare do-it-all guard who can frustrate a team like Santa Clara, so they need to make life especially difficult for him. Remember to box him out and keep him from easy backdoor cuts. The Broncos’ length should be enough to prevent the Waves from getting hot beyond the arc as long as close-outs are reasonably quick.

On the other end, Santa Clara should work to get Graves lots of touches down low. Entry pass, post move; entry pass, quick assist to a cutting guard/wing. Pepperdine is not going to bully SCU’s bigs. In the blowouts by both SMC and Gonzaga, both visiting teams were patient with their shots and didn’t rely on the three, though they got plenty of opportunities by working the ball around. SCU can and should do the same.

I worry a little about the psychology of this game. After playing Gonzaga and SMC back-to-back, Pepperdine may enter Leavey either deflated or fired up. Santa Clara will be back at home for the first time in almost a month. Hopefully, the Broncos feel amped for their part to finally be back home.

Prediction: 81-65 Santa Clara. Gavalyugov has a mini-breakout with 19 points on 7-11 shooting. Normand finally (finally) appears and gets his first bucket as a Bronco.

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Looks good Pat. Important for the Broncos to take advantage of this scheduling.

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It will always be Toso to me.

If you keep guessing enough times, eventually you’ll be right. :wink:

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Sports fan voodo, but Darlan has been much improved since I stopped predicting his breakout. And two seasons ago, after the first time I ever posted a prediction where SCU loses, Santa Clara beat the Zags for the first time in a decade.

Maybe I’ll stop predicting the Normand reappearance next game–or better yet, predict that actually they’ve decided to redshirt him-- so that we can activate the talisman that gets him on the court!

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I watched a bit of Pepp’s GU and SMC games. They aren’t great, but somewhat like Portland, they aren’t completely devoid of talent. As such, it’s hard for me to buy Torvik’s -24 line for the Broncos….maybe we’ll run them off the floor like OSU, but hard for me to rely on this somewhat unpredictable and inconsistent Bronco squad. Case in point, defense appeared much improved vs. OSU only to regress a few days later to one of our worst defensive performances vs. Portland.

As Patty notes, Pepp has some length and athleticism on the wing in Cooley and Clark, they both looked pretty solid and capable to me. Cooley’s 36% from 3 isn’t terrible. Pt guard Phipps doesn’t score a ton but he’s reasonably athletic, good playmaker and pass first guy with decent assist #’s.

And watch out for forward Dozic who attempts the most 3’s for them; his shooting % for the season isn’t great at 32% but he has improved over the past 4 games shooting 39% and making at least two 3’s in each of those games. I suspect Ensminger and Darlan will be on him the most and can’t leave him with wide open 3’s.

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Yes, the defense was ATROCIOUS. Truly shocking. Jekyll & Hyde basketball continues.

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Technical question for the pundits: How are other teams keeping Bukky away from the basket? All those dunks would have been difficult or impossible if he was just standing near the basket. Is there a way to not have his talent wasted and also unproductive fouls acuumulated at the top of the key?

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I assume you mean on the defensive side.

From what I’ve seen, the man being defended by Bukky is setting screens to draw him out. And really, he has no choice but to come up to the perimeter, especially in the cases when Bukky’s man can shoot the 3 well.

I’ve mentioned it before, and some others have agreed, some form of zone defense would keep him in as a rim protector. The exact form of zone would likely depend on the opponent’s roster. If they have one lights out shooter, might need to employ a diamond-and-one, otherwise perhaps a 1-3-1 would work.

But as all of us have pointed out, Sendek just won’t employ a zone. So just get accustomed to Bukky’s penchant for early foul trouble, combined with lots of close-in above-the-rim scoring by opponents.

Just my two cents.

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It is a mystery to me. Portland was 27-38 from 2. Loyola 16-26. Arizona State 19-32. New Mexico 25-34. Utah Tech 21-34.

We started out the year guarding 2s and protecting the rim at an elite level, even against the quality opponents. I am not sure if opponents have figured out something about our defensive scheme in the last 7 games.

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Pretty simple…..staff has chosen to have our 5 hedge aggressively on pic/roll so Bukky (and Graves) are 25-30 from the basket hedging and thus out of position to guard the rim.

If teams or the opposing PG quickly passes out of the hedge or dribbles around then attacks the middle with either a 2nd pass or the PG continuing to the hoop then our primary rim protector is not in position to clog the middle. Help defense has to rotate in to the key to help which in turn led to baseline backdoor cuts and lob dunks for Portlands wings and forwards.

When Bukky is on the court, I’d prefer we play drop coverage for pic/roll defense allowing Bukky to hang back in the key and be in better position for blocks and rebounding. Drop coverage puts a little more pressure on our guards to fight through screens to stick to their man and it may lead to a few more open 3’s for the ball handler using the pick but so be it….I’d rather give up an occasional 3 then allow the dunk parade that we did w/ Portland.

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Lots of Bukky’s fouls have been cheap slapping. If he stops doing that and simply traces the ball and moves his feet, those are eliminated. He definitely has the physical skills, just needs to be smart out there.

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You’re exactly right 92… simply tether Bukky to the rim. Don’t chase.
There are tons of varations of man D. Herb should employ rules for each player if he has his heart set on 100% man D. This is rudimentary stuff.

Sendek’s man D is so simple and predictable that even weak opponents can easily exploit it (Loyola Chi, Portland).

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Yeah, what made it more odd is that Portland has only 2 guys on their entire roster that have made more than 10 threes this entire season. If you can’t guard the paint against them, that is not very encouraging.

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Anyone at the game see if Normand is suited up?

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He’s not suited up. During the coach’s pregame chalk talk they mentioned he had a setback

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Patty is going to have to wait for the Normand debut. He isn’ on the bench and wasn’t in the warmups.

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So far not impressed with the D. Waves have scored 10 points in first 3:50 of the game.

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Normandy is at the end of the bench now, in sweats.

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7-and-a-half minutes into the game, and the Broncos have committed 7 fouls. :roll_eyes:

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Coach Will says Normand has a foot problem