Tip-off: Sunday, 5:30 pm @ Orleans Arena (Las Vegas, NV)
TV: ESPN2
Line: Torvik: Broncos -14.8, 90% win probability; ESPN: 90.5% win probability, Broncos -15.5.
Pepperdine:
Did you forget about the Waves? I sure did. Pepperdine was Santa Clara’s very first conference opponent, and, due to unbalanced scheduling, the two teams never met again…until now. The Waves are just 12-21 and only had 4 wins in the WCC. But they just got two straight in Vegas, including a big comeback against Portland and a fun squeaker against the Beavers (poor Pac-12 teams getting the BYU treatment…) Pepperdine isn’t good, but they are hot. And in tournament play, heat is sometimes all that matters.
Starters:
- 6-8 forward Stefan Todorovic (18.0 pts, 5.8 rebs, 36% from 3)
- 6-1 point guard Moe Odum (12.6 pts, 7.4 asts, 37.3% from 3)
- 6-10 center Boubacar Coulibaly (9.8 pts, 7.1 rebs, 1.6 blocks)
- 6-9 forward Dovydas Butka (9.8 pts, 6.4 rebs, 2.3 assists)
- 6-4 guard Zion Bethea (7.9 pts, 42.7% from 3)
Key Reserves:
- 6-5 wing Jaxon Olvera (6.1 pts, 32.3% from 3)
- 6-10 forward Danilo Dozic (5.6 pts, 2.7 rebs)
The good is that Pepperdine is on their third straight game in as many days. The bad is that they won the past two and are the hottest team in the conference as a result. Todorovic and Odum are the keys to this Waves team. Todorovic is a high scoring wing/forward who can do a little bit of everything. He has a quick release and a perpetual green light. Odum is a fast and shifty point guard who can dish and score with volume. Those two are the show, scoring the majority of the Waves’ points against both Portland and OSU. Stop them, and you stop the Waves.
The Broncos have had a nice rest and should have all of their players available. This will inevitably be a fast-paced game with lots of possessions, but the Broncos should nevertheless focus on transition defense and taking away the perimeter. Pepperdine can hit some wild shots–hasn’t it always been thus with Pepperdine?–and will take plenty of transition threes and mid-range shots off the dribble. Whoever defends Odum will have his work cut out for him.
Santa Clara needs to be the more energetic team. The Waves will come in with sore bodies but a lot of confidence. If they start hitting shots early, Santa Clara will need to regroup and stay focused. Torvik doesn’t project this to be a close game for a reason: Pepperdine is not good. But better to be hot than good sometimes.
Santa Clara needs to bring defense. And a fire hose.
Prediction: Broncos pull away from tired Waves in the second half, 87-69. Tilly rocks getting 16 and 10.
7 Likes
Great write-up as always, Patty.
Nothing more to add, other than Pepp seems to have a pretty good coach. He’s mixed up the defenses, bouncing in and out of zone (and different zone looks to boot) as well as a good dose of M2M.
I think the Waves will have a Pepp in their step, but will come up just short against our Broncos
SCU 89 - 81 Pepp
3 Likes
Broncos currently a 16.5 point favorite, wasn’t expecting that line
Honestly, that’s not enough… Pepp stinks.
Broncos 91 Waves 63
The tourney setting changes the dynamic from a regular season game. Pepp playing their 3rd game in 3 days, the Broncos their 1st game of the tourney.
So what will impact this game the most…momentum or fatigue???
Pepp is on roll, playing with confidence and their two top players, Odum and Todorovic, have each put up 30+ pt games so far in the tourney. Flip side, you’d think that fatigue could start to set in for the Waves, especially with Todorovic and Odum who are absolutely key for them but who have also played heavy minutes (Todorovic- 36; Odum - 39 last night).
A wouldn’t bet on this game no matter the line. The Broncos should win but I wouldn’t be surprised by a 4pt nail biter nor a 30 pt blowout.
2 Likes
In to the weeds on what to look for…
Pepp has gone with a bigger lineup the last month+ starting 6-10 wing Dozic instead of guard Bethea. Makes taller lineup than the Broncos and is a rare occasions where we’re shorter on the wings. In their starting lineup is really 1 guard (Odum), two tall wings (Todorovic and Dozic), a forward (Butka) and true center (Coulibaly).
I suspect Carlos (and Knapper when he’s in) will be matched on Odum and Tyree (Bal/Mahi when Tyree is out) on Todorovic…both matchups are critical.
And Coulibaly could impact the game…he’s a better rim protector, shot blocker and rebounder than Tilly and while not overly talented offensively, he has good hands and is efficient around the rim, shooting over 60%.
The Broncos need to do their thing O, move the ball and don’t settle for too many 3’s. On D, they need to play w/ energy and force Odum and Todorovic to work for their shots. This would be a good game for the Broncos to employ a full or 3/4 press a little…not to generate a bunch of turnovers but more to force Odum to work harder, put them under a little stress and slow their ability to get in to their offensive sets and touches for Todorovic.
1 Like
Was talking with another Bronco supporter today and Adama is currently participating in Ramadan so no eating/drinking from sunup until sundown. Not sure how that’ll affect his play tonight and throughout the tournament.
***Not sure if participating is the correct word choice
1 Like
Observing might be the right word.
Here’s an article about how NBA players have managed fasting during Ramadan and still excelled:
https://www.npr.org/2022/05/02/1095734394/ramadan-nba-playoffs-kyrie-irving
It’s nice to see Adama taking his observance seriously, and I hope he’s getting support from the staff and teammates.
3 Likes
I’ve watched so much college hoops that I’m forgetting what game it was, but there was a non-WCC game this last week where the announcers noted the team had 3 players observing Ramadan. Not all that uncommon.
It would be great to see some “killer instinct” from the Broncos tonight knowing they face Pepperdine and are expected to win….
It would work… but I doubt it will be needed tonight.
I’d really like to see it tomorrow. Force SMC to go fast and expose the fact that Saxon and Wessels can’t play that way. When I say force I mean full court run and jump traps… none of this fall back into man after half court token garbage, and the same forcing the issue on offense. If they turn it into a track meet SMC would be in trouble.
Alas, I am dreaming. Sendek only plays 1 way.
Let’s get past Pepp first….preferably get up by 25+ mid/late 2nd, pull the starters at 6-7 mins to keep them fresh for SMC.
2 Likes
Thank God for Knapper! Best player on the floor for Broncos this half and absolutely nothing from Bal and Tilly.
We’ve got to get some offense in the paint.
3 Likes
Reality is Coulibaly is tough on D, better shot blocker and rim protector than Saxon. When he’s in the game, won’t be easy for Tilly or Tongue to score on him.
That said we do need to challenge and other guards need to get to the rim like Knapper.
We’ll see if fatigue starts to set in the 2nd half for the Waves.
Bal has been a net negative. Tilly dominates teams with smaller centers, but he completely wilts against guys his size. Thankfully Cam has had a good game so far (other than his airball 3). I’d like to see Carlos continue to go hard to the basket. I’d also like to see us run the ball up faster, there is no way Pepp can keep up if we were to play like fast.
I’m also surprised we aren’t feeding Bryan more. He is the hot hand.
1 Like
I’d actually like to see more Knapper and Stewart on the floor together moving Carlos to off guard.
2 Likes
Way too many missed layups, three by Bryan, two by Mari, a couple by Tilly. Have to convert all or most of those.
3 Likes
We’re playing like it’s our 3rd game in 3 nights.
2 Likes