I’ll be at this one. I would like for the Broncos to win for ol’PattyMac.
Tip-off: Today (Saturday), 4pm in the Leavey Center
TV: ESPN+
Line: Torvik: Broncos -2.9, 60% win probability; ESPN: SCU +1.5, 43.4% win probability
Over/Under: 154.5
Torvik: Broncos #39, Gaels #31
(Broncos #53, Gaels #40 over Last 10 Games)
SMC
Here’s an usual occurrence: (some of) the computers have Santa Clara winning this one. Straight up. Vegas knows Bennett better than the algorithms and gives the Gaels a slight edge in what is basically a pick 'em. For those of you who have been watching Bronco games for the past 4 years–the time since the Broncos last beat the Gaels–you are probably wondering, “what’s going on?”
Well, a few things. For one, this Saint Mary’s team is good. Very good. But they haven’t yet shown themselves to be elite. Analytically, SMC has a very slightly worse offense than SCU and a slightly better defense. But this is not a lock-em-down-and-grind-it-out Gaels squad like the last few years.
Actually, this SMC team is (somewhat) offense-first. Believe it or not, these Gaels team has scored in the 80s and 90s more times than in the 60s and 70s. Their pace has not become fast by any means, but they are running fully 4-5 more possessions per game than last season. More on this below, but the Murauskas and Dent are elite offensive talents. But for a cold spell over the first several conference games, local boy Mikey Lewis, would be the third part of an elite triumvirate and may yet reclaim his spot on that pedestal.
Overall, what are the vulnerabilities? Well, there’s some chance that SMC’s near-elite status is a mirage. Both teams have the same number of wins against top-100 competition at 4. But the Gaels’ best win is against #54 Virginia Tech, and it’s their only top-100 win away from Moraga. SMC’s non-conference looks like a continuation of WCC play: lots of wins against mid-major teams ranked roughly 90 to 200 in UCU Pavilion.
And while the analytics love (and I mean WCC POY-type love) Murauskas, Dent, and frosh Dillan Shaw, there’s a steep drop-off. If you sort for in-conference games only, Murauskas, Dent, and Shaw are the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd most efficient players in the conference…scary. But then fully 7 Broncos show up before you get to the next Gael. SMC is more top-heavy than SCU. But you can only play five at once, and having the three “best” players in the conference so far is a pretty nice advantage.
Likely Starters and Key Bench:
| Height + Position | Player Name | Torvik Adj. Efficiency | PPG | Other Stats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6-3 Point Guard | Joshua Dent | 4.2 | 13.4 | 5.1 asts; 1.5 stls; 2.3 TOs; 94% FTs |
| 6-7 Wing | Dillan Shaw | 2.5 | 7.6 | 4.7 rebs; 44.6% from 3P |
| 6-3 Guard | Mikey Lewis | 3.1 | 13.6 | 91.1% FTs; 39.4% from 3P |
| 6-8 Forward | Paulius Murauskas | 5.6 | 19.6 | 7.3 rebs; 27.9% from 3P |
| 7-1 Center | Harry Wessels | 1.4 | 4.9 | 4.6 rebs; 1 blk; 65% FTs |
| 7-1 Center | Andrew McKeever | 2.6 | 8.8 | 9.7 rebs; 1.1 blk; 67% FTs |
| 6-4 Guard | Liam Campbell | 2.2 | 5.6 | 57% from 3P |
SMC is an elite rebounding team–no surprise there. They secure the ball at both ends between Murauskas and either of their 7’1" centers. There will be a real battle on the boards this evening. But the Broncos shouldn’t over-commit to fighting SMC’s post players for ever ball–Lewis, in particular, loves to leak out in transition for a couple of easy buckets each game.
Oh and SMC is the best free throw shooting team in the country, converting fully 83% of their attempts at the stripe. The Broncos simply cannot revert to stupid fouls in this game. It will bite them big.
That said, Santa Clara has some areas to exploit. For one, SMC no longer has the surgical precision of Marciulionis. Young PG Dent has struggled with the kind of ball pressure that SCU will bring and turns the ball over quite a bit for what you’d expect from an SMC guard. And though SMC runs two massive centers, neither is a major offensive threat, nor do they block lots of shots for their size. They don’t move as fluidly as Saxen who was surprisingly quick for his size and could usually recover on a driving guard getting downhill on a quick first step. Graves and Oboye will have a helluva battle down low, but on the offensive side, Hammond, Shash, and Mahi should be able to get decent shots in the lane over both.
The X-factors in this game, in my opinion, are Mikey Lewis and Sash Gavalyugov. If either one is on, look out. Lewis has had a rougher stretch but looked good against WSU and USF. Sash has been hot-and-cold all season but looked better of late as well.
The Broncos can win this one, but they’ll need to play smart and find a way to get hot. Fight for boards and apply smart but aggressive ball pressure for extra possessions. You won’t get many against the Gaels, but Santa Clara can manage a few. Keep Murauskas under control and hope that Lewis has a cold night.
Leavey is our house. Defend it.
79-76 Santa Clara. Darlan comes alive and gets 14 points and 8 rebounds.
