Tip-off: Tuesday, 8pm in Moraga TV: ESPN2 / ESPN+ Line: Torvik: Gaels -9.1, 82% win probability; ESPN: 83% win prob, no line yet.
St. Mary’s
Gaels are 21-4, 11-1 in the WCC and coming off a thumping of Oregon St. Saturday. The Gaels held the Beavers to 19 1st half points were up by as much as 21 late and settled for a 63-49 win.
Starters:
6-4 point guard Augustus Marciulionis (13.8pts, 6assists, 1.4 steals, 35% from 3)
6-3 guard Jordan Ross (8.8pts, 3 assists, 35% from 3)
6-6 small forward Luke Barrett (9.9pts, 6.7 rebs)
6-8 power forward Paulius Murauskas (12.5pts, 8.4 pts)
6-10 center Mitchell Saxen (10.7 pts, 8 rebs)
Key Bench: 6-3 guard Mikey Lewis (8.7pts, 37% from 3), 7-1 center Harry Wessels (4.4pts, 2.6 rebs, 67% FG%), 6-8 forward Ashton Hardaway (2.7pts, 1.6 rebs)just
Looking at SMC’s Thursday loss to USF as a roadmap for an upset. First, we have to understand that USF beat SMC by just 1pt on the their home floor and SMC had the ball at the end w/ a chance to win. It was far from a resounding win by USF. USF outrebounded SMC by a few overall but were even on offensive rebounds. And USF had 5 more turnovers. USF made one more free throw and had a slightly better eFG% primarily because SMC shot it so poorly from 3 at 3/23 (just 13%). SMC is generally going to take away the 3, force you to drive and then let their frontcourt collapse and protect the rim. The Broncos are going to have to make shots, including ones they don’t normally take such as mid range pullups as it’s unlikely we’ll get off enough 3’s to realistically make 10+ as we often do in our better games.
IMO, what matters as much as the stats is the style that SMC plays. The Gaels are extremely physical and their games are lower possession grinders. The Gaels are going to punch you in the face and you have to be able to play through and match their physicality, which we definitely did not do in the first game. Bal, Bryan and Mahi did not show up in the 1st game, each scoring only 2 pts with no made 3’s; that can’t happen again and we need double digit scoring by a couple of them.
Hopefully Tilly is able to go, we need all our bigs against SMC’s formidable front court. It would be great if we can take it at Saxen and Marauskas and get one or both in foul trouble; I’d much rather face Wessels and Hardaway.
Prediction: Broncos play better than the first time around but fall 67-63.
I beg the the coaches to implement some of the zone that USF used to keep smc to only 12 points in the final 10 min of play. The 2-3 zone effectiveness relies on missing 3s and it’s exactly what happened to smc on Thursday night.
There’s no guarantee that they shoot as poorly from 3pt land against a zone again - but even if it’s half as effective, it will keep us in the game and keep our bigs out of foul trouble.
Some smc posters were even saying “season over” after the usf game because of how their lack of shooters were exposed in that blueprint to beat them. I wouldn’t go that far by any means, but would love to turn it into a 3pt contest.
I’ll be in the building for this one. I’m really hoping the Broncos show up. I get that SMC is good–like top 25 good. But the Broncos just wilted in the second half last time in a way that felt uncharacteristic and hadn’t happened since Reno. And that garbage time run was helped by a couple SMC technicals. But it was still a pretty good run that showed that SCU can compete with the Gaels.
I don’t envy Sendek on this one though. He’s worked the rim-shots-and-threes strategy well all season, delivering a top-40 offense for it. SMC works like devils to stop you from the arc and at the rim. Two options:
(1) go straight at SMC and try to out-tough them at the rim and draw fouls on their big men. It’s a good strategy, but it is a big risk with our own lack of front court depth (if Tilly gets early fouls…yikes) and requires besting the 6-10 WCC DPOY right where he operates best.
(2) do something different by mixing in disciplined pull ups and only lightly contested threes to try to open up driving lanes a little more by keeping SMC honest away from the hoop. SCU’s comebacks against SMC over the last three seasons have usually been orchestrated by a player or two getting hot on jumpers when the Broncos were desperate. Do we try to use the jumper before we get desperate this time?
I think it’s obviously a mix of both and others, those two options not being an exclusive list or mutually exclusive to each other. The main three things I would take from the USF upset are:
Really push in transition when you can to minimize time for the Gaels to get into half-court defense. This is a game for Stewart, Bryan, and Knapper’s speed.
Try to isolate the switch of Saxen onto a fast guard at the top of the key. This worked several times for USF when either Beasley or Williams got the Saxen switch and everyone cleared out. He’s not fast enough to stay in good position all the way to the hoop, and the Dons could usually get a layup, close pull-up, or a foul.
Be confident that SMC can be out rebounded. Tilly, Tongue, O’Neil, Ensminger >>> Linguard, Wang, O’Donnell, etc. But the latter group was able to beat the Gaels on the boards. If it’s possible for their front court, it’s definitely possible for ours.
I was there for the Brownridge buzzer beater in Moraga a decade ago. I’ll try to bring that magic with me on Tuesday.
EDIT: Also love Midwest’s suggestion on zone. That was also SMC’s kryptonite in the OOC portion, and it looks like they haven’t cured their weakness yet.
One traditional basketball key-to-success is not giving up 30 unanswered points to start a half.
We neglected that one last time…
The Dons showed a blueprint, but as noted, SMC had a chance to win it at the buzzer despite having a once-a-decade type bad night from the 3-pt line. It took us having the opposite from beyond the arc to win in Spokane, and these Gaels are better than GU.
I noticed in the SMC - Oregon State game on Saturday that Saxen essentially roamed free from Key to Key. Never really a body on him on the way down the court or anyone to “greet” him above the free throw line. I think getting him out of rhythm, however subtle it may be, is key…and don’t let him establish position so easily.
If I remember correctly, in our home game vs SMC Saxen got a couple of fouls early in the game (maybe by the 12 min mark?) when we WERE GOING RIGHT AT HIM. They pulled him for several minutes. When he came back into the game, we didn’t continue our aggression. If I’m coach, I tell our guys to go right at him from the get-go. He’s a bit slow-footed, so try to get him at an angle rather than straight at his chest and initiate contact.
Also, I presume that Tilly is still hurting. If Oboye gets lots of minutes, hopefully he and Mahi can continue their two-man game…but they’ll need to add a kick-out option when the SMC meaty bigs collapse.
This might be the game to try my fantasy lineup of Tilly, Oboye, Tongue, Stewart and Mahi. Just for a few possessions. I know HS won’t do it, but I think it could work.
It’s really simple that the individual match ups don’t favor us. Saxon - Tilly is reasonable except when Marcioulionus is handling the high pick and roll. Saxon is great getting the ball 5 Ft from the hoop and hard to stop there. The Bal- Marciolionus matchup is a big SMC advantage. He can stop Bal we can’t stop him. He dictates the other matchups via switches. The Jake E matchup on Murauskas would be even but Jake is not a scorer and Murauskas is a good backdown scorer and good defender. Luke Barret - Bryan slightly favors us in that Bryan, when on will out score him but not rebound as well .
The Ross - Stewart is a toss up. If Carlos gets his rhythm we win this one.
The biggest challenge is their defense . They are physical and connected.
I would hope we start O’Neill vs Jake and hope he can continue to be productive on offense. If we don’t shoot it great - another long night.
Finally, Adjustments Bennett vs Sendek - no contest… They can win multiple ways, our is to hopefully make shots as our defense will not be able to shut them down unless they have another USF horrible shooting night.
Mostly agree 'musings.
One exception or maybe more of an idea and not sure if Sendek would do this but I’d try Bryan on Marciulionis and Bal on Barrett. Bryan is a better defender than Bal, more athletic and more physical a better fit to guard Marciulionis who is strong and very physical for a point guard.
Barrett is also very physical but Bal is still an inch taller. There is some risk that Barrett bullies Bal and Bal will have to be very focused on boxing him out and keeping off the glass. But you can kind of hide Bal on Barrett as Barrett is probably their least active offensive player and not a playmaker. Whereas Marciulionis is critical to their offense so put our best perimeter defender on him.
My opinion…we’ll see if Sendek thinks outside the box on this.
And I absolutely agree with Midwest’s zone idea. Perfect team for us to employ zone, especially with the interior physical mismatch (strength and weight, not so much length). I’ve advocated for more zone for the entire Sendek era. Unless you have an elite defensive team (we never have) then zone should be another tool in the tool box, doesn’t have to be a majority of the time, could be just 10-25%. Instead we just play zone a handful of times per year for a minute or two.
So knowing Sendek won’t employ a zone beyond a few token occasions the more likely option is to more or less accomplish the same thing with a Tony Bennett style Pac-line man D. Help on all drives and clog the lane, collapse and double Saxen and Marauskas in the post. Help off all perimeter players with maybe the exception is of 6th man Mikey Lewis; he’s their biggest 3pt threat when adjusting for minutes played, it’s a secondary option for almost everyone else in their rotation. One key on helping on drives is you want to help and cut off their drives early at 12-15feet, 10feet at worst. If you help late, say at 5 feet it’s just too easy for them to dump off a pass to Saxen or Wessel or hit a floater. Cut them off at 12-15 feet and force them to pick up their dribble and kick out to the perimeter or take a contested mid-range jumpers.
Going to have to be a clean game for the Broncos, need to be a little better than usual on the glass, on D, limit turnovers, etc. Scoring 100 or 80 with a barrage of 3’s is nearly impossible vs. the Gaels, so we have to be better in other areas.
its odd, saxen is one of the only matchups where tilly has not succeeded whatsoever over the years. if I remember right, scu made the come back last year in moraga going small ball and a bit of zone. seems insane to not have tilly out there if healthy but you have to exhaust all options
Thanks Bronc. When you look at the analytics for SMC’s lineup vs SCU’s lineup the results are a stark contrast in their offensive and defensive efficiency vs ours.
Both their Offensive and Defensive NCAA efficiencies are ranked in the 95th percentile. SCU 79%.
When you add rebounding they are 99th percentile SCU 71%. I won’t even go to turnovers.
Summary, their effective efficiency totals - the margin net difference between SMC 39 and SCU 16 adjusted for respective schedule strengths is 20. Most all the diff is their stifling defense.
Our best hope becomes they shoot it lousy like vs USF and we are on fire.
Hope so , but less likely on their home court….
Maybe the zone defense idea will get used and work!
Desperate times call for desperate measures.
If a key guy is out, such as Tilly, maybe that will give Sendek the courage to do something outside the usual vanilla offensive and defensive schemes.
We’re already at a disadvantage against a favored team and on the road….may as well roll the dice. Expecting to play them straight-up and just hoping you outplay them, especially when you’re shorthanded, is foolish….hope is not a strategy.
I do feel like this is a pertinent question given the first 8 minutes. 10 fouls to be used by Tongue and Bukky (and my guess is at least 8 or 9 will be used), what’s the plan after with no more centers…