WCC Game 8: at St. Mary's

Game Preview/Recap
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Tip-off: Wednesday, 8pm @ Univ Credit Union Pavilion (McKeon)
TV: ESPNU / ESPN+
Line: Torvik: Gaels -14, 92% win prob; ESPN: 92% win prob, no line yet.
Rankings: Broncos (NET- 108; Torvik- 130); Gaels ( 21 / 15 )

St. Mary’s:
Gaels are 16-6 overall, 7-0 in the WCC coming off a narrow 5pt win over LMU.
Starting Lineup:
6-10 center Mitchell Saxen (11.1pts, 7.8pts, 1.5blocks)
6-8 forward Joshua Jefferson (10pts, 6.6rebs, 27% 3ptrs)
6-7 wing Alex Ducas (8.4pts, 5rebs, 37% 3ptrs)
6-3 guard Aidan Mahaney (14.3pts, 2.7assists, 35% 3ptrs)
6-4 pt guard Augustas Marciulionis (11.5pts, 4.5assists, 1.4steals, 30% 3ptrs)

The Gaels MO is well established. They defend extremely well, currently the #5 ranked Defensive team on Torvik. They do so by holding teams to a low FG%, prevent them from attempting 3’s, and rebound extremely well thereby minimizing 2nd chance pts.

LMU did give SMC some trouble on Thursday and had the score tied with ~7mins left. LMU also played SMC close the 1st week of league play, losing by just 4pts. In Thursday’s game, LMU created some matchup challenges for SMC by going small for long stretches of the game, playing 6-6 Leaupepe and 6-7 Mirkviladze as the two bigs, in a three guard lineup. All 5 Lions could shoot the 3 witch drew Saxen out of the paint. SMC said had to counter with an adjustment to a smaller lineup with Saxen playing less than usual (just 22mins).

Hopefully, Sendek and staff watched plenty of tape on the LMU games and found some some ways to give the Broncos an edge. The Broncos need to rebound much better than they did the last time around vs SMC. The Gaels had nearly as many offensive rebounds (14) as the Broncos def rebounds (16) which is a terrible ratio.

Offensively, our reliance on 3ptrs and creating offense off dribble penetration is a bit of concern as SMC defends both of those things very well. We need to find a way to create offense in a variety ways, through the post, good player and ball movement, and rebound well defensively and get out on fast breaks and try to get some easy buckets in transition.

Prediction: Broncos battle and play better but fall to the Gaels, 74-70.

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^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
THIS THIS THIS THIS

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So maybe try running a BK, Tyree, Bal, O’Neil, and Tongue lineup? I watched a bit of the LMU game and was really impressed by LMU’s fight but also noticed how many tough shots the Lions had to hit to keep them in it. SMC’s struggles at the beginning of the season seemed to stem from both Marciulonis and Mahaney both being out of sorts. One or both has been on for the last dozen games or so which has led to the Gaels taking only one loss over that stretch.

I don’t think SCU just lays down like last time. But you can’t get down to SMC and claw your way back like SCU did against Pepperdine. Their defense is too good and their pace too slow to allow for that. Being down 8 points to SMC might as well be 20 most of the time.

Give me 68-66 Broncos with Ensminger solidifying his breakout with a very workmanlike double-double. Bal and CMJ :crossed_fingers: only have 3 TOs between them.

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Both Mirkviladze and Leaupepe (he made three 3’s on Thurs.) are 3pt shooters, so had 5 guys on the floor who were 3pt threats. I love Cam and wished his role was bigger but 3pt shooting isn’t really his thing, so if we want to mirror LMU you probably need to replace Cam w/ Ensminger in Patty’s lineup. And since Carlos is our leading 3pt shooter (both in makes and %) you probably want to include him in any small, 3pt shooting focused lineups. So you could accomplish that in a couple of different lineup options:

  • O’Neil, Ensminger, Marshall, Bal, Bryan (the big guard lineup with no true PG we’ve used often), or
  • an even smaller lineup of: O’Neil, Marshall, Bal, Bryan, Knapper.

The smaller lineup for LMU didn’t hurt their rebounding as the rebounding %'s for the two teams were about equal. Forcing Saxen out of the lineup and to the bench helped LMU as Saxen is SMC’s top rebounder.

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We don’t need 5 3pt shooters on the floor. If we have 4 solid outside shooters (Bal, CMJ, O’Neil, BK or Bryan), the 5th guy could be a high-energy rover in constant-motion, ready to set back screens for the perimeter guys to give them options. I think Cam could do well in such a role…plus he is a good rebounder.

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I don’t know that we need five 3pt shooters either, just saying what worked for LMU.
Part of the reason it matters is that you can actually play 5 Out offense and all of the opposing bigs have to extend to the perimeter and can’t just hang back in the key. That in turn opens up driving lines with fewer defenders in position to help.
And keeping Tongue on the court allows SMC to leave Saxen on the court…again part of the benefit and desire is to force SMC to take one of their better players off the court.

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Honestly wish my kid would just ignore the nonsense and put up the three. He went 44 out of 50 shooting around. He IS a 3 pt shooter actually.

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I’m a little shocked we don’t have more activity on this SMC game thread…we are 6-1 in conference and this is a major contributor toward tournament seeding.

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Broncos will have to be significantly better in three areas to have a chance to win tonight in Moraga.

Assist to TO ratio
Rebounding
Points in the Paint

Gaels dominated in all three phases at Leavey. This team is rather disciplined and what turnovers we’re able to create, we need to convert. Protect the basketball and move without the ball offensively, seek backdoor cuts…anything to dusrupt their rhythym and force SMC to make adjustments…GO BRONCOS!!!

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Just looked at NET ranking, it says now that we have TWO Quad 1 wins. I dug in a little deeper, looks like Oregon has moved its way into Quad 1.

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On a tiny sample size, he’s actually the best 3 point shooter on the team. With respect to Cam, I doubt he’s a 50% in-game three point shooter. But yeah, I would have him put up any truly wide open look he gets from beyond the arc until and unless his numbers go way down with more attempts.

**EDIT: After checking, Torvik has Tongue as 2 for 5 on the season (40%) which would not be best on the squad. ESPN clocks him at 3 for 6 (50%). Either way, it’s an insignificant sample size to draw any big conclusion except that, if Cam has it wide open, I think he should take it.

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I’ve been noticing this too. The Broncos’ opponents are moving in the right direction. If Santa Clara gets 7 more points to flip the Utah State and SJSU games, I think they’re in bubble conversations right now with three Quad 1 wins and only one Quad 3 loss.

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i.e., beating SMC tonight would be massive to get us to move up 7 points.

GO BRONCOS, BEAT THE GAELS.

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Gotta give the Mountain West credit…lots of teams in the top 64 in NET rankings. Utah St. ranked higher than SMC. New Mexico is high up on that list as well.

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2 teams that look evenly matched in terms of talent. Vegas has SMC -13.5 … guess they think having the best coach in the WCC is worth 10 points and home court 3.5.

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Yep, he is 3 for 6 at the 3 PT attempts. 50% to me is NOT BAD and he should just put them up when uncontested. Be nice if Torvik got their stats right.

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My guess is that Torvik doesn’t include non-D1 games when they compile the stats.

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A win tonight would be massive. I don’t expect it after the first game but I do believe we have the talent to win, just not sure about the will. SMC is tough and fights for every loose ball and prior comments on reducing turnovers and rebounding are on the mark. To win I also think we will have to shoot the lights out and play tough D, something we haven’t been good at. We will also need to beat USF to have any shot at post season unless we somehow pulled off a tourney win. Tonight I am doubtful but ever hopeful. GO BRONCOS!!

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I agree we have the talent. But the WILL of this team is questionable. There is a lack of a sense of urgency when playing with this crew. (Or so that is how it appears to me). I truly HOPE they silence everyone tonight with a win. They really should be on a “payback tour” for the first outing at home. I don’t post who playing tonight and who is not on this thread - for fear of opposing teams following and making adjustments. But we are down a man tonight. Otherwise, I would LOVE to see everyone’s projections/adjustments because I love talking basketball and seeing others insights/strategies.

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Hands up defense broncos !!

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