Tip-off: Tuesday, 8pm, @ Leavey
TV: ESPNU
Line: Torvik- Broncos -15.8, 90% win probability ESPN- Broncos -10.5, 90.2% win prob
Riverside:
You may remember the Highlanders from the 42-point shellacking that the Broncos dispensed in Leavey earlier this season. But that may not be totally the right impression to lead with. Per Torvik, the Broncos put on one of their best games of the year that night, while the Highlanders quietly went on to amass 21 wins and finish 3rd in a fairly strong Big West. They played BYU tight in Provo, beat Colorado State on the road, and claimed a win against both of the Big West’s darlings this season, UC Irvine and UC San Diego (soon to be WCC teams? I can only hope.)
The Highlanders are not exactly a stellar team. Perhaps not even a very good one. But there’s enough talent here to beat the Broncos on a bad night. And after the Pepperdine debacle, who are we to underestimate an opponent?
Starters:
- 6-0 guard Barrington Hargress (20.6 pts, 4.0asts, 32.7% from 3)
- 6-1 guard Isaiah Moses (12.2pts, 3.0assists, 36.1% from 3)
- 6-3 guard Nate Pickens (9.7pts, 3.5rebs, 39.5% from 3)
- 6-9 forward Kaleb Smith (11.1pts, 4.1rebs, 33.3% from 3)
- 6-10 center Joel Armotrading (5.8pts, 6.6rebs, 1.2 blocks)
Main Bench:
- 6-5 wing Niyi Olabode (4.8pts, 4.3rebs)
- 6-9 forward Rickus Schulte (3.7pts, 3.4rebs)
Hargress is a volume shooter who can and will pull up from anywhere. His 3P percentage has fallen over the season, probably as more teams play him tight on the perimeter. But like Moe Odum or Lamar Washington, you have to be ready for him to jump stop into shooting motion from any part of the floor.
There is little that the Highlanders do particularly well. They do not turn the ball over a lot, perhaps because they are a team that likes to use isolation with their best players, especially Hargress. They have a pretty low assist rate, indicating minimal ball movement. This will be a game for SCU to work on its on-ball defense and help. Hargress really is the key here–no other player on UC Riverside is at all likely to beat the Broncos, but Hargress could do it on his own. He dropped 40 in the upset of UCSD, for example.
The Broncos need to dominate the glass and play for lots of second-chance points. They actually gave up 16 offensive boards earlier in the season when these two met, but the Broncos shot so well that it barely registered. SCU cannot plan to shoot better than 50% from three every game and need a good plan to work the ball inside and win at the rim. Setting aside the actual front court, players like Mahi and Bryan are the future of the program and are much bigger and stronger than the guards and the wings for UC Riverside. They should be able to score at the rim or draw fouls to open up the perimeter.
Prediction: Broncos decide they want to make the most of this opportunity, 89-74. Mahi gets 23.
