Line: Broncos -5.3 and 71% win probability on Torvik; ESPN also 71% win probability, no line yet.
This will be a test of the Bronco’s resolve. They’ll need to flush the bad Fresno game and move forward mentally and emotionally, they can’t let one bad game bleed in to two or three. As several of us have noted, the offensive metrics of the first 5 games weren’t/aren’t sustainable; hopefully the cohesive productive offense continues but it is bound to drop off a bit. So, IMO the focus needs to be on continued, incremental improvement in defense and rebounding. The rebounding has improved after being pretty bad in the first couple of games but there is still some room for improvement.
UC Irvine: 3-1 on the year with an early good win over Boise St. in Irvine. Their most recent game was a blowout of Pepperdine last Saturday. Small sample size of only 4 games but defense appears to be their calling card, holding teams to a fairly low effective FG%. Top two players are 6-9 senior forward Collin Welp (13.3 pts, 6rebs…15 & 7.6 last season) and 6-4 sophomore guard Dawson Baker (13.3 pts, 5/11 - 45% from 3). Irvine does not rely much on 3’s; they shoot a decent % from 3 but have one of the lowest 3pt attempt rates in the country and only average a little over 5 makes a game.
Prediction: Broncos bounce back and prevail 74-70.
I do think Irvine has been D1 since the 70’s… (that’s relatively new to guys like me and you, but a good # of the guys on the board probably weren’t born before UCI went D1). In other words, we’re getting old.
Fresno St.'s defensive speed and physical play (rather handsy) exposed a weak point for the Broncos. Still, it was encouraging to see a close game where SCU’s offense was absolutely handcuffed and man handled. The guys kept fighting, and if a couple shots would have gone in could have grabbed the W.
I don’t think Irvine can if fast enough or strong enough to play D the Fresno way. Their big guy Welp is pretty solid all around, and Dawson Baker is really good. Aside from those 2, UCI is outmanned (even with no Josip).
Strange 4:30pm start time.
Broncos get back to what we saw in the 3 games before Fresno
SCU 73 UCI 65
Between the ladies getting to the College Cup and my other alma mater handling the nefarious Buckeyes, I’m riding a sports high this 24 hrs. Betting it continues.
Broncos over Anteaters. 80-66. Keshawn and PJ bounce back and combine for 46 pts.
Irvine makes you take tough shots that you usually miss. That’s been their style for years. They won’t force a lot of turnovers. You can run your offense. You just probably aren’t going to like what you end up with after you do.
Lot of respect for their coach. Not the ideal game to play after an offensive meltdown. Seems weird to say a non-conference game at 5-1 is a gut check, but resolve will be tested.
Turner’s a good coach. If only he had learned to not stick his foot in his mouth he’d be coaching at a premier D1 school. Cost himself a lot of money acting like a clown.
Very smart and fortunate to have worked for some really excellent mentors, starting with his undergrad coach until he became a head coach. One of the few that takes no backseat to anyone, even Sendek, in terms of academic achievement.
Good grief this team has the worst rim luck. Have been so many lucky baskets on really desperate shots against them. Hopefully that turns around at some point this season.
The physical play starting to go 1 way now. They’re allowed to do whatever they want but they call Braun for a foul when it should have been a jump ball.
Need to get control. Look for the calls to tighten up a bit.
LOL they let Williams get fouled 4 times, then wait for him to score, then call it on the floor. Are these Big West refs?
Then Bediako gets a foul for having a guy jump into him. Wow. Fortunately that was the best way to get a stop bc that guy sure sucks at free throws.
Lid on the baskets again.
UCI plays like 80s Georgetown. Foul you 100% of the time knowing the refs won’t call them all. And now they just can’t miss. Going to be tough if the refs don’t tighten up and give a fair shake.
They just let that fatass 7 footer shove the block out under the basket time after time, then call the foul on SCU. Ridiculous. UCI sure did order these guys up.
Totally hilarious that they have actually called SCU for more fouls in this half than Irvine. Unbelievable.
Williams has really let the team down today. I don’t know if he is suffering ill effects from his ankle thing the end of last game or what, but this is more like what he looked like last year: flashes of brilliance, but overall inefficient and inconsistent.
When SCU went up +7 I thought in a game like this that would be a decent margin. Didn’t count on pretty much not making a shot the rest of the game and having the refs stop calling fouls again.
Well, at least that should take some of the completely silly talk about NCAA at-large and such off the table.
Another game where if Vrankic is available, it’s a different game. Just snakebit. Bottom line is it’s going to be damage limitation until he is back. Were at the bare bones having lost Djuricic and Besselink even before Vrankic went down. Just really have to have him.
They just destroyed us on the offensive glass. Realizing we have zero depth, opposing coaches are going to throw a lot of bodies at us, play really physical, and hope this style of play either gets our guys in foul trouble or wears us down.