Tip-off: Friday, 5pm, Las Vegas (Henderson) TV: FloSports; Stream Arizona St vs Santa Clara - FloCollege Line: ESPN- 67% win probability for ASU; Torvik- ASU -2, 58% win probability.
ASU:
The Sun Devils are 1-0 after an ugly win over Idaho St., 55-48 after a 14-18 2023/24 season.
Starting Lineup (stats are 2023/24):
6-3 guard Adam Miller (12pts, 30% from 3)
6-2 guard Alston Mason (17.5pts, 3.6assists) transfer from Missouri St.
6-5 freshman guard Joson Sanon
6-9 Basheer Jihad (18.6 points, 8rebs) - transfer from Ball St.
6-9 freshman center Jayden Quaintance
6th man, 6-6 wing BJ Freeman is a transfer from Milwaukee who averaged 21pts and 6.6 rebs, and had 12pts, 8rebs and 2 blocks against Idaho St. Wouldn’t be surprised if he starts vs. the Broncos.
Hard to get a read on ASU this early in the season particularly with four new starters including two transfers and two frosh. Miller is their best returning player.
Transfers Mason and Jihad appear to be very good scorers.
Quaintance scored just 2 pts with a rebound vs. Idaho St. but did have 6 block shots so appears to be a leaper and an above the rim player.
For the Broncos, we need O’Neil and Stewart to shoot it better than they did vs. SLU. We won the game but those two to be productive if we’re going anywhere this year. And the loose defense, giving up both a ton of 3’s while not cutting of drives vs. SLU needs to be shored up.
Prediction: Broncos hang on for the win in a close game, 74-71.
Agree Julia.
But they do seem to have some athletes and size in the frontcourt.
If ASU gets physical and guys like O’Neil and Tilly don’t respond well to that then it could present a problem.
More Cam is of course the answer…but Herb has always been tepid in going that direction; as great as Cam played vs. SLU, Herb only played him 17mins and not at all at the 4 spot where O’Neil and Ensminger collectively put up a goose egg.
SCU should have a height advantage at almost all positions except, perhaps, when Cam plays at the 5. Santa Clara should also have a cohesion advantage not just because of the extra time playing together but also because Hurley, always a bit fiery, has expressed his frustrations with his squad in the press. I guess reasonable minds can disagree here, but I never think that a coach airing frustrations with his players’ effort is an effective way to boost the same.
Now these are Big 12 athletes, in theory, and capable of turning it on at any point. But based on the limited sample so far, this is more like a “must win” for SCU than a “hope to win.” It’s more likely to slip to a Quad 3 game by season’s end than climb to Quad 1, in my opinion, though playing a Big 12 schedule may help float the numbers for ASU a bit.
Give me 78-68 Santa Clara. Mahi has his coming out with 22 points and 8 boards.
Curious…The board seems a bit confident on this game. If ESPN has a 67% ASU win probability and Torvik 58%, what do they know that we don’t (or conversely, we know that they don’t). Is there a bias for the B12 vs WCC or towards the Broncos history of falling short in the must wins?
ASU is just ranked higher at the moment. They received a couple votes in the first AP poll and their advanced stats are currently higher. Will that continue as the year goes on? Who knows?
I would think most of us here are some combination of optimistic or biased. Personally, I’m both. Broncos 86-72.
I wouldn’t put much stock in the advanced metrics and predictions by Torvik, ESPN, etc. this early in the season or even Vegas for that matter.
With significant player turnover, transfers, etc. they are making statistical guesses without real, current season data.
Four new starters for ASU including two frosh starters and two transfers means very little real info to go by for predictions.
Wasnt this the same AWFUL service last year? The feed did not work, etc? UGH So to watch one game we pay $19.99 it looks like right? Or buy the monthly subscription.
In terms of how good the Sun Devils are, one game doesn’t mean much. You need some time to compare how and who teams have played. That’s why early rankings and win percentages seem silly and almost wishful this early. If the Broncos show up, fix some of the o-fer hiccups and play D, they should be fine.
BTW, SLU also had win probability over the Broncos, although they were 1.5 point dogs.
Line update: ESPN has it Broncos -4.5. It’s still Sun Devils -2.2 on Torvik. A ~7 point difference. This highlights my point above that the advance metrics and spreads are going to be out of whack for the first several games of the season until they have some real current season data to work from. By December you’ll never see a 7 point spread difference between the Torvik and ESPN/Vegas lines.
And a heads up…our SCU website shows the game at 5pm, ESPN shows it as 5:30. So who knows…plan accordingly.
I trust Cam.
Our game is part of the Las Vegas Hoopfest event, UCLA vs. New Mexico is the 2nd game of the night. And the website for the event confirms the Broncos play at 5pm PT.
Love the optimism! Although the St. Louis game was a good win, the Broncos again had more turnovers than assists. 12 TO’s very good compared to last season, but ball movement wasn’t great and too much dribbling and ISO’s need to be addressed.
Is Vegas an Hour ahead and so it’s 6 pm for us and 5 pm for them? But if Vegas is saying 6 pm - then that would be 7 pm for us right? After three years you’d think I would’ve adjusted to West Coast addition for time verses East Coast. lol
Arizona has a confusing system where they don’t do daylight savings, and are thus sometimes pacific and sometimes mountain, which probably accounts for the confusion.
I live in Denver (Mtn Time Zone) and ESPN shows the game at 7pm MT, but I think it is actually 6pm MT…
FWIW the sportsbook & betting sites have the game listed as a 5pm start and the UCLA/New Mexico game at 8pm.
Maybe ESPN has the game listed at 6pm because that’s what time Flo Sports coverage starts? Joining the game in progress? Or it’s just an error by the Worldwide Leader