WCC Game 4: Oregon State

League Play
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Hi everyone, @92Bronc is off on a well-deserved trip right now, so I’ll be doing my best on the game threads for a couple of weeks. I’m nowhere near the basketball mind that 92 is, so go easy on me as far as the analysis is concerned.

Tip-off: Thursday, 7pm at the Leavey Center
TV: ESPN+
Line: Torvik: Broncos -5.1, 69% win probability; ESPN: 61.5% win probability, no line yet.

Oregon State:
The Beavers are 12-4 (2-1 WCC) and are coming off a win vs. USD on Saturday that looked much more like what Santa Clara wanted to do with the Toreros: take a couple early punches and runs and then cruise ahead for a comfortable win. Oregon State has much in common with Santa Clara. The Beavers look analytically like the Broncos with a solid offense and so-so defense. They also have been inconsistent, taking a 20 point loss to LMU last week. That’s OSU’s only bad loss, but they have only one reasonably impressive win after ruining UC Irvine’s undefeated streak back in December. Oregon State is also deep and relatively balanced, with seven players putting up solid numbers and fifteen total players having seen game time this season (obviously including token minutes for walk-ons).

Starters:

  • 6-0 guard Damarco Minor (9.6 pts, 4.7 rebs, 5.2 asts, 1.8 stls)
  • 6-5 guard Nate Kingz (11.3 pts, 1.7 asts, 49.2% from three)
  • 6-7 wing Liutauras Lelevicius (8.6pts, 4.3 rebs, 41.2% from three)
  • 6-9 forward Michael Rataj (16.7 pts, 8.4 rebs, 2.2 stls)
  • 6-9 forward Parsa Fallah (10.8 pts, 3.3 rebs)

Main Reserves:

  • 6-2 guard Josiah Lake II (7 pts, 1.3 stls, 42.9% from three, 89.3% from the charity stripe)
  • 6-7 forward Isaiah Sy (5.6pts, 2.1 rebs)

The Beavers are a solid offensive team with an effective inside-out game. They take fewer threes than Santa Clara, but convert the ones they do take at a very impressive 38.5% rate overall–good for 20th in the country. But their defense is quite poor and getting worse, even a hair worse than Santa Clara’s. OSU has played a largely mediocre schedule (non-con ranked 227th to the Broncos’ 92nd), so some of the Beavers’ efficiency may be a mirage with bad competition. That said, they’ve had moments getting very close to an upset of Oregon and taking a close loss to a good North Texas team.

This game starts the Broncos’ most crucial stretch of the season, playing 7 straight against top-125 teams (all top-75 except LMU), each of which wants to be 1st or 2nd in the WCC. Oregon State is waning, turning in their worst performances of the season over the past few games. But there’s plenty of talent for OSU dominate a sleepy Broncos squad that doesn’t defend.

We will see how the Leavey Center looks for this one. The students are back, and Oregon State is a new, intriguing opponent that may draw some interest. But there will also be lots of local Beavers drawn to the game who may try to turn the Leavey Center into their home court. The Broncos need to be ready to bring their own energy and discipline for a good opponent.

Santa Clara should win this one, and they will be able to score plenty. But much will ride on whether the Broncos feel like defending at a high level or just letting OSU walk to the hoop as a means to get to the next offensive possession.

Prediction: Broncos put it together, 86-75. Mahi leads all scorers with 19 points and 8 boards to go with them.

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Good work pmac! You are selling your analytical skills short.

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The game is going to be a track meet. Given the 7-day hiatus, there might be some rust in the first 4 minutes before the 1st media timeout. After that I think it’s off to the races. There’s no D in “Santa Clara” or “Oregon State”, so I’ll predict 92-89, we win but don’t cover. Bal will have a solid game, and O’Neil continues his march toward matching or exceeding his overall performance last season.

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You’re hired Patty! Thanks for stepping up.

Watched OSU vs. USD….OSU looked solid and seemed to check all the boxes….decent size, length and athleticism, multiple guys who can score. Kind of head scratcher that they lost be 20 to LMU.
Rataj is very capable….what we hoped O’Neil would be, scores from all levels and rebounds well. I believe he has averaged 20+ in their WCC games. I expect some combination of Ensminger, O’Neil and maybe Mahi will get the assignment on Rataj……they’ll have their hands full.
Kingz has also been a very efficient perimeter shooter.

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Has there been an update on Tilly yet?

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Tilly is in the starting lineup.

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Tilly is playing. Think Luke may have quit the team

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Wow. Are you sure? That seems rash on his part.

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Was told he’s gone, no longer on the team. Not sure if he’s still enrolled as a student

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ESPN app broken for anyone else? It says the game hasn’t started yet. I’d blame SCU, but it looks like there are a bunch of other 7 pm games on the platform that aren’t live per the app.

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Yeah, not working for me, either. I’ve tried on my phone, my laptop, and my TV. No dice. Just says “This event has not yet started”

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Super irritating. No radio call to supplement either.

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Trying to talk to espn app support. They are supposedly/allegedly working on it.

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We’ll have to settle for the espn.com gamecast and the box score.

So far, we are outrebounding the Beavers 8-2. Bryan has two O-boards already. And team is 4-4 from free throw line. Good start.

EDIT TO ADD: almost halfway through the first half, we’ve only attempted three 3-pointers!

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They appear to be playing defense for once, and WE CAN’T WITNESS IT! Maddening.

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Solution: watch through the Hulu app if you have the ESPN+ bundle with Hulu.

Got that from the OSU board and confirmed it works. Thank you, Beavers, and welcome to the WCC!

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Supposed to be fixed within 15 mins.

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YES! The HULU path works for me

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We are ACTUALLY PLAYING DEFENSE!!!

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Once again, we choke in the last two minutes before halftime. :man_facepalming:

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