Tip-off: Saturday, 4pm in Henderson, NV (neutral site)
TV: TNT/TruTV
Line: Torvik: Broncos -2.9, 61% win probability; ESPN: No line, Broncos 56.4% win probability
Torvik: Broncos #43, Arizona State #70
(Broncos #30, ASU #75 when removing preseason weighting)
Sun Devils
Do you remember Maurice “Moe” Odum? You should. This will mark that sixth time that Mr. Odum has played against SCU, though across three different schools. He was one of the two driving engines in Pepperdine’s WCC Tournament run last season that felled both Oregon State and Santa Clara in a remarkable Waves sprint the semis–ironically, both Odum (Pacific) and Todorovic (USF) having started at other WCC schools. Odum will get his last shot at the Broncos on Saturday. Can SCU contain him?
Now Odum is only 1-4 against the Broncos. But that was as the dynamic and explosive PG for otherwise bad teams. Now he is the dynamic and explosive PG for a good, or at least pretty good, team. ASU has done fairly well against a strong schedule so far. Even their two losses (Gonzaga and USC) were by respectable margins and showed fight to the end.
Add in a Hurley on the sideline, and you’ve got some popcorn-worthy viewing coming on TNT.
(Likely) Starters and Top Bench:
| Height + Position | Name | Torvik Adj. Efficiency | PPG | Other Stats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6-2 PG | Moe Odum | 4.0 | 17.2 | 5.9 asts; 1.5 stls; 43.5% from 3P |
| 6-4 Guard | Bryce Ford | 1.7 | 9.1 | 43.9% from 3P |
| 6-11 Wing | Andrija Grbovic | 1.1 | 5.8 | 3.2 rebs |
| 6-11 Forward | Santiago Trouet | 1.8 | 7.8 | 6.3 rebs |
| 7-1 Center | Massamba Diop | 3.7 | 12.9 | 4.9 rebs; 1.5 blks |
| 6-8 Wing | Allen Mukeba | 1.4 | 6.7 | 3.4 rebs |
| 6-3 Guard | Anthony Johnson | 2.4 | 13.3 | 38.9% from 3P |
ASU trots out a huge lineup. Their three front court players are all 6-11+, though Grbovic prefers to play on the outside in spite of his size.
A potential weak point is that ASU is a fairly bad FT-shooting team. Indeed, Odum’s 90% average raises their floor, but the next two best FT shooters only crack a tiny bit above 70%. The Broncos need to control their fouls generally but, as long as they don’t foul Odum, these Sun Devils will not make the Broncos pay quite as high of a price.
The Sun Devils are decent but not spectacular at either end. The inside-out game between Odum and Diop is their main weapon with Diop being almost as deadly close to the hoop as Odum is, well, anywhere. They shoot the three very well–again, Odum especially–and their height makes it difficult to shoot the three over Hurley’s squad.
For the Broncos, defense will be key. If they thought keeping Albury away from the hoop was tough, just wait until they get a load of Odum’s speed and shiftiness. ASU doesn’t rebound particularly well for their size, nor are they getting lots of offense on the fast break. But Santa Clara better have cleaned up the transition defense if the Broncos want to get a win.
If Ensminger is back and even 90%, I like Santa Clara in this matchup for a bounce back game. But if Jake is still out or the Broncos leave their determination in the South Bay, ASU will happily take advantage.
Prediction: 74-68 Santa Clara. Mahi recovers from a bad game with 17 points and 8 boards.
