Game 6: vs. Stanford

Tipoff: Saturday, 7pm @ Leavey
TV: ESPN+
Lines: Torvik- Broncos -2, 58% win probability; ESPN- no line yet, Bronco 48% win prob.

Stanford:
Kyle Smith’s Cardinal are 5-0 but haven’t played anyone of note yet with all Quad III and IV wins. Their best win is over #159 (Torvik) UC Davis at home.
Starters:

  • 7-1 center Maxime Raynaud (21pts, 12rebs, 43% from 3)
  • 6-2 point guard Jaylen Blakes (15pts., 3.4rebs, 4.4assists, 24% from 3)
  • 6-5 wing Oziyah Sellers (13pts, 3.6 rebs, 31% from 3)
  • 6-1 guard Benney Gealer (10.2 pts, 41% from 3, leads in 3ptrs made)
  • 6-6 wing Ryan Agarwal (8.6pts, 5.4rebs, 36% from 3)
  • 6th man: 6-8 forward Chisom Okpara (5.8pts, 2.4rebs)

All 5 Cardinal starters shoot the 3 and average at least three attempts a game. The Broncos perimeter D will be tested and will have to extend while not giving wide open driving lanes. Raynaud is a handful and not only scores from inside and out but is also a great rebounder at both ends and is currently averaging 4 offensive rebounds / game. Tilly and Tongue will be challenged and both are at risk of getting in foul trouble trying to slow down Raynaud. Duke transfer Blake has not shot it well from 3 but has done a good job of penetrating and drawing fouls and leads them in FT attempts and shooting 73% from the line.

Statistically, as a team, there are no apparent weakness, above average to very good in all areas that matter; that said the competition level has been relatively weak so the Cardinal really haven’t been pushed or tested and they have yet to leave the friendly confines of Maple Pavilion.

And Kyle Smith has gotten the better of Sendek more often than not in his time at USF and WSU.

For the Broncos, they played better, with more energy especially on D on Tuesday vs. UC-Riverside. And the shots were finally falling for the team as whole including for O’Neil. Tilly also had one of the better games of his career. Was that all a one game flash in the pan or can the Broncos build on that win and show continued improvement??? We shall see.

Prediction: Broncos prevail by a hair, 75-73.

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Excellent summary but I believe Sendek is actually 6-4 vs Kyle Smith in their head to head match-ups.

Bronco Records vs Kyle Smith teams

2-1 in 16-17
1-1 in 17-18
1-1 in 18-19
1-0 in 19-20
0-1 in 21-22 (NIT game)
1-0 in 23-24

Fair enough.
Perception is probably skewed by the fact Smith and Herb arrived in the WCC at the same time under similar circumstances and Smith had far more success during the 3 years they overlapped in the WCC.
Compounded by Herb’s general lack of success vs. USF post -Smith and overall:

  • 0-2 in 19/20
  • 0-1 in 20/21
  • 0-2 in 21/22
  • 1-2 in 22/23
  • 1-1 in 23/34
    So Herb is 6-11 vs. USF by my count.

God I’d love to have the Stanford double Saturday

Cal beats them in football and Santa Clara beats them in basketball

NEED it

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I think Sendek’s actual record is 7-10 against USF. That’s what USF’s records show, anyways.

Yeah, maybe more accurate to say that Golden, Bouyea, and Shabazz really got the better of Sendek. It’s the five-game losing streak in the 20-21 and 21-22 seasons that’s a killer.

Anyways, I am trying to avoid hoping until there’s a real string of meaningful victories. This is a game that Santa Clara should win. SCU should be better than last season; Stanford should be worse.

76-69 Broncos with Tongue having a bounce back game with 14 points, 7 rebounds.

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ESPN line: Stanford -1.5

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That line feels right to me. The embodiment of “Santa Clara definitely should be better, but the results to date don’t lie.” I don’t think the score is within 7 on either side. SCU will lack discipline and freeze again, losing by 15, or look ready to hit their ceiling like last game and win by 10+.

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The Broncos are currently -1.5 point favorite and 63% of spread bets & 69% of the moneyline bets are on Stanford according to BetMGM

I’m sure if we all bet on Stanford, then SCU will be guaranteed a win.

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New ad! Thank goodness. :raised_hands::raised_hands::horse:

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Playing well. Living at the FT line and making them. Unexpected minutes and contribution from Oboye including a made 3 and made his 2 FT’s.

Struggling to stop Raynaud. Tilly is foul trouble with 2. Has forced us to use all 4 centers. Fortunately, no one else for Stanford is doing much.

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Oboye subbed in for Tilley after Tilley picked up his 2nd foul, and had 5 points in 5 minutes. He also picked up 3 fouls. :rofl:

McEldon played less than 1 minute and picked up 2 fouls. :rofl: :rofl:

Unforgivably poor start to the second half. 10 pt lead down to 2. Two turnovers. :face_vomiting:

12-0 run in the first 2.5mins…now down 2. So much for that good 1st half…

Cam has forced two of Reynauds fouls. Herb should let him keep annoying him.

I’m am just so sick of the low-percentage passes that invariably end up becoming turnovers. Sloppy, sloppy play.

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Just coughed up an 8 pt lead in 30 seconds.

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I’m at the game. We have definitely made some bad decisions, but these refs are just awful!!! They’re letting Raynard do whatever he wants!!! He is throwing elbows. Committing offensive fouls for which Santa Clara is getting called a block! Still reeling from that call on Cam was an absolute abomination. (Listen to ESPN commentator on that one). I’m so sick of crappy officials. They even had some poor guy removed from the game tonight because they are SOFT and know they are in the wrong.

That being said. Our boys need to say “okay - if this is what we are doing. I’m hitting back harder”. BK said the guys play each other real physical at practice and then back down during the games. Maybe they need to look at these games as another practice?

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Reminds of the ASU game and several games last season…another missed opportunity.

A very inconsistent 2nd half, some good stretches but also some very sloppy offensive possessions, turnovers, forced/contested 3’s, etc. 17 TO’s for the game is too many and Bal in particular 4 to’s and several bad passes. Cold shooting from 3 in the 2nd half, 1/9, didn’t help but a lot of that was bad possessions not generating good looks leading to forced 3’s later in the shot clock.
Just have to play cleaner if you want to beat decent teams.

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Niners 🤝 Broncos

Blowing 10 point leads

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