Tip-off: Tuesday, 6pm at Maples Pavilion TV: Pac12 Network Line: Torvik- Cardinal -14, 89% win probability; ESPN- Stanford 87% win probability, no line yet.
Stanford:
The Cardinal are 2-0 with wins over CalState-Northride and Sac State. Coach Jerod Haase is on the hot seat after seven mediocre seasons and no tourney berths. Starting lineup:
7-1, 250lb junior center Maxime Raynaud (18.5pts, 11 rebs)
The Cardinal start a large front line (both height and weight) and rebound well so the Bronco’s own sizable frontcourt and frontcourt depth will be tested. The Cardinal are also a veteran bunch with mostly upper classman in their playing rotation.
Our Broncos are off to a nice start but haven’t really been tested. Rebounding will be key but won’t come as easy as the past few games. I suspect Caffaro will see plenty of PT to match up with Raynaud. Our talented wings of Marshall and Bal plus Bryan off the bench are going to have to continue to play well and put up some points. Benjamin may have his hands full with Providence transfer Bynum.
Prediction: Broncos compete well but suffer their first loss while covering the spread, 79-72.
This is an important barometer for the Broncos. A win at Stanford keeps postseason dreams in play. With Hasse coaching, I expect a loss to Stanford to age like milk, though it’s at Maples at least.
Santa Clara wins narrowly, 71-68. O’Neil, Marshall, and Caffaro score by committee with 14 each.
I think we’re far better than the +14 spread and would even go as far to say this one is a toss up. We played them really well two years ago, and hoping we can recreate that route.
Maxime Raynaud was on Adama Bal’s Euro Cup-winning U20 French team this summer, so there will be a reunion for those two. Raynaud was the second-leading scorer after fringe NBA prospect, Ilias Kamardine. Adama Bal was the third leading scorer on the squad.
Sac State played Stanford relatively close for about 30 minutes before Stanford really pulled away. Sac State has been pesky for SCU in the recent past, but the telling stat is that Sac State out-rebounded the Cardinal 44 to 32 with the Hornets grabbing 19 offensive boards. That’s a real weakness for SCU to exploit. If only we had a player who specializes in ripping down offensive rebounds…
The Stanford - Santa Clara series is pretty even: 4-3 in favor of Stanford since the new millennium. It’s good for the sport locally that the Bay Area schools all play each other, and I hope that Stanford and Cal continue to see the value after having largely avoided playing WCC opponents for most of the 2010s.
I agree with Buckets and Midwest, Torvik’s +14 for the Broncos seems steep and kind of a headscratcher. That said, we’ll see what the actual betting line is; ESPN hasn’t posted yet and I haven’t gone looking elsewhere but I suspect it will be 10 or less.
I’m not going to pretend to be smarter than Torvik, I imagine he has a statistical basis but my observation is Torvik’s Home vs. Away typically has a net 7 or 8 pt swing in his methodology which feels high to me. You can see an example of this in the current WCC game predictions on Torvik, all ~7.5 to 8+ difference in the respective home/away games.
I just don’t think home court is that influential in most WCC games or in our games versus Bay Area squads. We aren’t traveling across the country or staying overnight to play at Stanford, it’s a 15min drive up 280 or 101. Nor is Stanford known for packing Maples with a hostile and vocal crowd…there will probably be 5,000 or less in the ~7,000 seat Maples and more than a few will be Bronco fans. Similar for games vs. Cal & SJSU.
And in WCC games we’ve had plenty examples in recent years of beating an SMC or USF on the road while losing to them at home. I know that’s not as statistically valid as whatever data Torvik is relying on but still.
92 - definitely agree. The models don’t seem to adjust for the different between a cross-country swing versus a game that is actually in our home county. If we wanted to, we could change into our uniforms before we drive up there.
I’m ever hopeful and I like our chances. I view this game as a barometer of how good or not we truly are. I do think that Tilley needs to score and we cant rely on Marshall to be our only big scorer. I think if we can win three of four against the former Pac 12 that will put us in good stead for the upcoming WCC season. Cams rebounds helped against St Francis and I continue to hope he gets more playing time. Need one of the new guys to hit some threes. GO BRONCOS!!!
As a Zag fan who has also followed Santa Clara from the days of Henry Caruso (great to hear him on the ESPN+ broadcasts), I have been probably most impressed with Santa Clara after the Zags. It was great to see Herb play Cam Tongue in both halves. He is an instant offensive rebounding machine and grabbed 8 rebounds (5 offensive) in only 14 minutes plus scoring 6 points. I don’t think Stanford will be able to stop Carlos Marshall (congrats on being named player of the week - are the Broncs starting a trend). Santa Clara has a ton of height and I really like what I saw from O’Neil in your second game (not just 3 pointers but his drives were good). Except possibly at point guard, Santa Clara has the deepest bench in the WCC if not the country. No doubt that Santa Clara has the second toughtest schedule in the conference next to the Zags. Go Broncs!!
My concern is that our team is filled with a lot of newbies who haven’t played much together, and certainly haven’t played P5-quality opponents yet. So that ML bet concerns me. But definitely rooting for an SCU victory!
