SCU is almost certainly getting into the NIT.
But you are right. I checked Torvik this morning, and if you just flip the NDSU, Stanford, and USF games (all games where SCU had a 90+% chance of winning in the last 90 seconds) then SCU gets in the Tournament per that tool.
I haven’t lost total hope for Vegas. I prefer being on SMC’s side of the bracket–always better to face Bennett than Few in the month of March–but SCU is 2-2 against the Zags over the past two seasons, so there’s some hope there still to make the championship game.
@buckets Some previews and predictions in this thread: Santa Clara Preview in the Offseason
But I’m not sure if we ever did an official “guess the record” game this year as in years past.
@Dualthreat The official line is that the NET is for sorting your opponents but not used for actually determining the field. They use resumes to put teams in (i.e. good wins versus bad losses). The common wisdom is that you need a few good wins but really need to avoid bad losses. USF’s success has been avoiding bad losses though they’ve had challenges getting the wins they need. But it keeps them in the hunt longer than SCU who accumulates both impressive wins and bizarre losses. A few teams with lower NET rankings than SCU will get in this year because they have 0 Q3/Q4 losses, even if they only have one more Q1 win than SCU.