Tip-off: Tonight (Friday), 7pm in the Leavey Center
TV: ESPN+
Line: Torvik: Broncos -18.3, 93% win probability; ESPN: Broncos -19.5, 94% win probability, o/u at 139.5
Torvik: Broncos #75, Louisiana-Lafayette #258
(Broncos #32, ULL #281 when removing preseason weighting)
Louisiana-Lafayette
The second LA team (the other LA) that the Broncos face this year is not nearly as staunch as their rivals up Hwy 10 at McNeese State, to whom ULL has already lost a game, 88-62. The Ragin’ Cajuns (great name) have lost four of their five games to date and only notched a win against yet another Louisiana school in Southeastern Louisiana State. The Cajuns just got blown out by Stanford in Maples, 93-66.
Where Idaho State is somewhat better than the current metrics say, ULL is not. This is a team that should not be trouble for Santa Clara if the Broncos are as strong as a team as we hope. If they struggle to close a second buy-game in a row, it doesn’t bode well for next week’s legitimately tough game against the Billikens.
(Likely) Starters and Top Bench:
| Height + Position |
Name |
Torvik Adj. Efficiency |
PPG |
Other Stats |
| 6-3 guard |
De’Vion Lavergne |
1.1 |
9.2 |
Just 18.8% from 3P |
| 6-5 guard |
Dorian Finister |
2.5 |
11.8 |
4.6 rebs |
| 6-7 wing |
Joshua Lewis |
-0.3 |
6.2 |
3.0 rebs |
| 6-7 forward |
Dariyus Woodson |
-0.3 |
4.6 |
|
| 6-10 center |
Jeremiah Evans |
-0.3 |
2.0 |
Less than 10 min per game |
| 6-5 wing |
Jaxon Olvera |
1.7 |
15.8 |
41.7% from 3P |
| 6-8 forward |
Kyrann Ratliff |
0.0 |
1.2 |
3.0 rebs |
The Ragin’ Cajuns do nothing particularly well. But two particular weak points stand out. First, they do not go after offensive rebounds. The Cajuns are a small team overall, playing just one guy over 6-9 and only for a few minutes at the beginning of each half for rim protection. The Broncos should be able to secure the glass on both ends of the court. This is a game for Graves to feast on missed shots.
Second, the Cajuns foul a lot. Again, because they are small, they likely spend many of their fouls keeping other teams’ bigs off of the glass. This is a good opportunity to get the forwards and centers some lob practice and passes on the pick-and-roll. The Broncos will have a size advantage and, even if they miss, they’re likely to get to the line against this team.
If the name Jaxon Olvera sounds familiar, it’s because he was on Pepperdine last season. He was relatively quiet in the two games against SCU but can go on a heater: he scored 29 against Gonzaga when the Zags got pushed in Malibu.
Other than those notes, this is really a game where the Broncos should get out ahead early and often. There’s enough sample size to establish that the Cajuns should not be able to push Santa Clara around. I’m reticent to go for so much confidence after last game but here goes playing with fire again…
Prediction: Broncos actually break 100 this time, 102-69 Santa Clara (same prediction as last game). Graves gets the star treatment that Bukky had versus Nevada with a 20 points, 14 rebounds domination of the key.
