Tip-off: 7pm, War Memorial Gym TV: ESPNU Line: Torvik- Dons -5, 68% win probability; ESPN- Dons -3, 65% win prob.
USF:
15-10 on the season, 4-6 in the WCC, coming off a 9pt loss at SMC. Prior to that had been on 3 game win streak including wins over Pacific and BYU.
They’ve jumped ahead of the Broncos on Torvik, now ranked 80th to the Broncos 90. On NET, Broncos are ranked 93rd, USF 107.
6th Man: 6-2 guard Marcus Williams (7pts, 2.6 assists, 44% from 3)
A new wrinkle in their lineup: 6-7, 238lb sophomore forward Ndwedo Newbury has entered the rotation and played their last 4 games after not playing this season prior to that and only played garbage time minutes last season. In those 4 games, he’s averaged 6pts, 4.3 rebs and has made a few 3’s while playing ~22mins / game.
3pt defense will be critical for the Broncos, USF is 4th in the nation in 3pt rate, and 70th in 3pt shooting % at ~36%. All of their starters plus 6th man Marcus Williams can shoot the 3. And their overall eFG% is 40th in the country. They live and die by the 3.
Though their starting lineup doesn’t include any true posts or anyone over 6-8 and their guards are very small, they are still a good defensive rebounding team, ranked 46th on Torvik.
We will have a size advantage on the wings with Podz and Justice especially when the Dons go to their 3guard lineup of Shabazz, Roberts and Williams…none of them are over 6-2. I hope we find a way to take advantage of this, ie- get Justice some touches in the post, same with Podz or run sets where they can catch at 12-15ft and back their guy down.
Related to the discussion in the GU game thread, I hope Herb doesn’t hesitate to go to Tilly and Tongue if Bediako in particular struggles. And given the size and perimeter skill set of USF’s starting bigs, this would be a good time to use Braun and Tongue together.
Prediction: Broncos prevail in a shootout, 84-80.
Hoping Bronco alumni turn out in force. Wish I could make it; lot’s of fond memories of raucous crowds and games @ USF in the 90’s and early 00’s.
A must win in reality. The only acceptable loss would be to BYU since its there. I think 6-1 and some wins in the tournament are our only chances for another NIT berth. Chronicle had story on NCAAs and for that to happen we would have to go 7-0 and make the finals in the tournament. I agree with comments on Tilly and Tongue. We need some aggressive D and rebounding as well as points inside the paint. USF is good, we have to be better tonight. They like to shoot the three so we need to defend it. I do like the progress we are making in becoming more relevant. We need some wins over quality teams and tonight would help.
This board is prophetic…Tilly and Tongue enter, in just a few minutes, 4 pts and block from Tilly, a thunderous dunk and 1 from Tongue plus some rebounds by each.
Great jobs Broncos! The support section of Bronco fans behind our bench looked awesome. I know the players must have appreciated it.
Also, for amusement, go watch the Portland/Pepperdine final 20 seconds of Overtime. It is perhaps the most bizarre ending to a college basketball game I have ever seen. About 10 different things happened.