Tip-off: Saturday, 3pm in Corvallis, Oregon
TV: ESPN+
Line: Torvik: Broncos +1.9, 43% win probability; ESPN: 33.5% win probability, no line yet.
Oregon State:
The Beavers are now 15-6 (5-3 WCC) and are coming off a win vs. Pepperdine in Corvallis where they cruised most of the second half. Oregon State has emerged as the Broncos’ primary competition for a third-place spot in the WCC. So this game will determine who has the inside track. Generally, a loss to LMU or a win against Gonzaga would be determinative for who’s in the pole position. But funny enough, both OSU and SCU have lost to LMU and beaten the Zags. So the head-to-head is what will make the difference.
Big man Parsa Fallah, who was dominant versus the Broncos and kept OSU in the previous game, did not play against Pepperdine due to concussion protocol. Unclear if he will be available tomorrow. If not, that’s a huge SCU advantage, though the Beavers are still a plenty good team even without him.
Starters:
- 6-0 guard Damarco Minor (10.0 pts, 4.6 rebs, 5.3 asts, 1.6 stls)
- 6-5 guard Nate Kingz (12.0 pts, 1.6 asts, 49.4% from three)
- 6-7 wing Liutauras Lelevicius (8.5pts, 4.3 rebs, 39.1% from three)
- 6-9 forward Michael Rataj (17.5 pts, 8.1 rebs, 2.0 stls, 2.4asts)
- 7-1 center Matthew Marsh (1.9pts, 1.7rebs, does not take threes)
Main Reserves:
- 6-2 guard Josiah Lake II (7 pts, 1.3 stls, 37.5% from three)
- 6-7 forward Isaiah Sy (5.5pts, 2.0 rebs)
- 6-9 forward Maxim Logue (1.6pts, 1.5rebs, only 25% from the line)
Questionable:
- 6-9 center/forward Parsa Fallah (12.4 pts, 3.6 rebs)
The Beavers have an 8-game home winning streak that the Broncos are looking to break. Admittedly, 6 of those games were against pretty poor competition, but they have wins in Corvallis against a good UC Irvine team and…well…Gonzaga.
The Beavers do it with offense. Their defense is middling, at best, and getting worse. Over their last 10, their defense ranks 242 in the country. Compare that to our Broncos who are ranked 97 over the last 10 games even though Randy Bennett ain’t exactly running SCU’s defense either. Every player in Oregon State’s rotation, except the two centers, Fallah and Marsh, shoots the three-ball at better than 30%. They dish out 15.5 assists per game, moving the ball well to find open shots. And we know that Fallah is a nightmare if he gets the ball down low.
Rataj, Ensminger’s German teammate, is the usual star. He’s a do-everything forward who can shoot the three, dish out assists, or post up down low. He gets lots of rebounds and is the fatal combination of size, effort, and skill that allows him to take over a game. His Achilles heel is turnovers, so if the Broncos can stay tight on Rataj, they may force a few miscues. Nate Kingz was quiet in Santa Clara’s previous game. But that was an unusual outing. He’s their third leading scorer and shoots just under 50% from three. If you lose him on the perimeter, you will pay. Actually, if you lose anyone on the perimeter: OSU is just outside the top-25 in the country for 3P percentage at 38%.
Both teams shot poorly from three in the last outing as both squads made that their defensive focus. As a result, it was a wings and big guys affair with lots of points in the paint. With the way Santa Clara has shot the ball the last two games, I expect OSU to try to take the three away and force the Broncos to look inside. Mahi was excellent against OSU last time and is due for a big game. Tilly, Tongue, and Adama all worked hard getting inside baskets. That recipe will work again, especially if Fallah is out, as long as Santa Clara can maintain the defensive intensity on the other end, especially around the arc.
You may remember the Broncos shooting an awful, awful 48% from the charity stripe last time, the only reason that game went to overtime. You may also remember Santa Clara having two different 12-point leads that were squandered. Oregon State is a good team and playing at home. Santa Clara is a slight underdog. But the last time out, it took the Broncos shooting less than 30% from three and leaving 14 unconverted points at the line to create such a close game. I don’t think Oregon State gets the benefit of such a bad night twice this season.
But the X-factor: OSU has stayed in Corvallis all week. Santa Clara is, presumably, flying up today and after a late game last night, has to play a mid-afternoon game tomorrow. How much does that matter? I can’t say. I thought that a close loss at LMU followed by a flight up to Spokane was going to cause the Broncos to underperform in the Kennel. I was wrong. But the Broncos are going to have to treat this away game with the grit and determination they showed in their last PNW outing to meet their potential.
Prediction: Broncos eke it out, 82-79. Mahi finally comes back to his old ways with 17 points, 8 boards, and the go-ahead bucket to seal a victory.
Hope Cam is ok most importantly. He’s been solid today!