WCC Game 9: @ Oregon State

Tip-off: Saturday, 3pm in Corvallis, Oregon
TV: ESPN+
Line: Torvik: Broncos +1.9, 43% win probability; ESPN: 33.5% win probability, no line yet.

Oregon State:
The Beavers are now 15-6 (5-3 WCC) and are coming off a win vs. Pepperdine in Corvallis where they cruised most of the second half. Oregon State has emerged as the Broncos’ primary competition for a third-place spot in the WCC. So this game will determine who has the inside track. Generally, a loss to LMU or a win against Gonzaga would be determinative for who’s in the pole position. But funny enough, both OSU and SCU have lost to LMU and beaten the Zags. So the head-to-head is what will make the difference.

Big man Parsa Fallah, who was dominant versus the Broncos and kept OSU in the previous game, did not play against Pepperdine due to concussion protocol. Unclear if he will be available tomorrow. If not, that’s a huge SCU advantage, though the Beavers are still a plenty good team even without him.

Starters:

  • 6-0 guard Damarco Minor (10.0 pts, 4.6 rebs, 5.3 asts, 1.6 stls)
  • 6-5 guard Nate Kingz (12.0 pts, 1.6 asts, 49.4% from three)
  • 6-7 wing Liutauras Lelevicius (8.5pts, 4.3 rebs, 39.1% from three)
  • 6-9 forward Michael Rataj (17.5 pts, 8.1 rebs, 2.0 stls, 2.4asts)
  • 7-1 center Matthew Marsh (1.9pts, 1.7rebs, does not take threes)

Main Reserves:

  • 6-2 guard Josiah Lake II (7 pts, 1.3 stls, 37.5% from three)
  • 6-7 forward Isaiah Sy (5.5pts, 2.0 rebs)
  • 6-9 forward Maxim Logue (1.6pts, 1.5rebs, only 25% from the line)

Questionable:

  • 6-9 center/forward Parsa Fallah (12.4 pts, 3.6 rebs)

The Beavers have an 8-game home winning streak that the Broncos are looking to break. Admittedly, 6 of those games were against pretty poor competition, but they have wins in Corvallis against a good UC Irvine team and…well…Gonzaga.

The Beavers do it with offense. Their defense is middling, at best, and getting worse. Over their last 10, their defense ranks 242 in the country. Compare that to our Broncos who are ranked 97 over the last 10 games even though Randy Bennett ain’t exactly running SCU’s defense either. Every player in Oregon State’s rotation, except the two centers, Fallah and Marsh, shoots the three-ball at better than 30%. They dish out 15.5 assists per game, moving the ball well to find open shots. And we know that Fallah is a nightmare if he gets the ball down low.

Rataj, Ensminger’s German teammate, is the usual star. He’s a do-everything forward who can shoot the three, dish out assists, or post up down low. He gets lots of rebounds and is the fatal combination of size, effort, and skill that allows him to take over a game. His Achilles heel is turnovers, so if the Broncos can stay tight on Rataj, they may force a few miscues. Nate Kingz was quiet in Santa Clara’s previous game. But that was an unusual outing. He’s their third leading scorer and shoots just under 50% from three. If you lose him on the perimeter, you will pay. Actually, if you lose anyone on the perimeter: OSU is just outside the top-25 in the country for 3P percentage at 38%.

Both teams shot poorly from three in the last outing as both squads made that their defensive focus. As a result, it was a wings and big guys affair with lots of points in the paint. With the way Santa Clara has shot the ball the last two games, I expect OSU to try to take the three away and force the Broncos to look inside. Mahi was excellent against OSU last time and is due for a big game. Tilly, Tongue, and Adama all worked hard getting inside baskets. That recipe will work again, especially if Fallah is out, as long as Santa Clara can maintain the defensive intensity on the other end, especially around the arc.

You may remember the Broncos shooting an awful, awful 48% from the charity stripe last time, the only reason that game went to overtime. You may also remember Santa Clara having two different 12-point leads that were squandered. Oregon State is a good team and playing at home. Santa Clara is a slight underdog. But the last time out, it took the Broncos shooting less than 30% from three and leaving 14 unconverted points at the line to create such a close game. I don’t think Oregon State gets the benefit of such a bad night twice this season.

But the X-factor: OSU has stayed in Corvallis all week. Santa Clara is, presumably, flying up today and after a late game last night, has to play a mid-afternoon game tomorrow. How much does that matter? I can’t say. I thought that a close loss at LMU followed by a flight up to Spokane was going to cause the Broncos to underperform in the Kennel. I was wrong. But the Broncos are going to have to treat this away game with the grit and determination they showed in their last PNW outing to meet their potential.

Prediction: Broncos eke it out, 82-79. Mahi finally comes back to his old ways with 17 points, 8 boards, and the go-ahead bucket to seal a victory.

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Useless fact - the Bronco’s trip to the final four in 1952 was held at Gill Coliseum in Corvallis (well, the west regional was).

Neat old barn if you ever get up there.

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honestly this will be one of the toughest games of the season. Gill is a hard place to play, just have to get out of there with a 1 point win

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Gill can’t be any harder to plan in than GU’s always sold out McCarthy, especially when school is in session and the student section is in full force as it was last week.

Our friends in the desert currently have the Broncos as a 3.5 point underdog. Here’s hoping they can get it done and escape with the W

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For so many years, we have talked about a team getting better across the year and peaking at the right time.

It seems like just maybe, we could have that happen this year. While I desperately want NDSU, Stanford and @USF back, everything is still out in front of our boys.

As 92 stated above, if we can win in Spokane, there isn’t a game on the schedule we can’t win, and we have a lot of different guys who can help make that happen.

Obviously, GU still comes to Leavey, we have two dates with the Gaels and a trip to Pullman… nonetheless, I feel good at the moment.

Huge one today… go Broncos.

Incidentally, Torvik has us at #47. Can’t recall a higher number ever?

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Didn’t make the Rataj - Ensminger connection……that could be interesting as Ensminger may be matched up on him.

Rataj is the key guy to stop IMO. He’s the highest rated player during WCC play on Torvik for PRPG! (An overall rating factoring in scoring, shooting efficiency, rebounding, assists, TO’s, etc.). He had 16pts and 10rebs in our last game but took a lot of shots and was a poor shooting night for him….not sure if that was our D or just an off night for him.

If Fallah is out again, that would be huge benefit to the Broncos as he had his way with us in the paint last game. And their forward depth is poor, a steep drop off after Rataj and Fallah.

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No Bryan tonight…ugh.

And Fallah is playing.

Broncos have to step up.

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Still can’t handle Fallah, he’s physical and establishes deep position and we aren’t dealing with it.

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OSU playing like they want revenge. Tight, physical defense. The refs with a “let 'em play” philosophy so far. Need to adjust.

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Pick and roll is WIDE OPEN!!! Should look for it all day! Can Cam make a dang FT!!! He’s definitely gonna hear it from me!!!

We’re doing some good things defensively, and good work on the glass, but geez…free throw shooting :angry:

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Lucky with this score after that performance from three and the line…

Go Broncos.

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NO IDEA why we don’t double team him!!!

I think the guards are having a tough time seeing around the double. It’s there, but I’m not sure the passes are that easy to execute. The Beavers have their hands on the ball the second it’s out in the open.

That said, they got a few good ones. The pass to a wide-open O’Neil for the dunk was nice.

Clearly the odds improve with Fallah on the bench. Need to keep taking it at him.

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Great comeback to close within 2 at the half

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weird game, OSU has made 1 three pointer, SCU with 3 themselves. No one for SCU with more than 6 and Oregon State also leaning on team scoring. Both teams can play a lot better

whew man its PHYSICAL out there. Adama and now Cam on one ankle, Tyeree out and its somehow a 3 point game with 8 minutes left

:pray: Hope Cam is ok most importantly. He’s been solid today!

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Fallah has been getting away with cheap shots the whole game!!! He SHOVED Cam from behind - causing injury and NO CALL!!! Our boys need to come back and DISH back !!! Step up for your guys who are taking the hits.

HOW does Oregon only have 3 team fouls with 5:26 on the clock?!!!

Okafor did that same two hand push from behind Tyree last game that Fallah (or the other big behind Cam) did tonight on that rebound. Cant be pushing guys when they’re in the air.

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