OOC Game 7: Saint Louis Billikens (Acrisure Game 1)

Game Preview/Recap
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Tip-off: Thursday (Thanksgiving Day), 4pm in the Acrisure Arena (Palm Desert, CA)
TV: CBS Sports Network
Line: Torvik: Broncos -0.2, 51% win probability–a pick 'em
Torvik: Broncos #61, Saint Louis #63
(Broncos #17, Billikens #26 when removing preseason weighting)

Saint Louis
Yes, Robbie Avila is still in college basketball. Cream Abdul-Jabbar, Steph Blurry, Larry Nerd, Milk Chamberlain…give your favorite nickname for one of the sport’s most beloved players. He’s on his farewell tour under Coach Josh Schertz who brought Avila with him from Indiana State to SLU last year. The Broncos eked out a 7-point win against the Billikens last season, helped somewhat by Avila’s unfortunate ankle injury late in the second half.

This will be a different Billikens team, though. First, last year’s SLU squad was not deep at all. If not for Avila’s ankle-turn, SLU would have played all five of its starters for 30+ minutes. This year’s Billikens have nine players averaging at least 15 minutes per game. Second, last year’s Saint Louis team was…to be frank…kind of soft. They didn’t rebound well–never one of Avila’s strengths but no support elsewhere on last year’s team either. They seldom forced TOs or blocked shots. That’s different so far this year, and SLU has owned the paint on both ends in their games so far.

Now SLU has the benefit of having almost exclusively played buy games at home so far this season. Their stats are almost certainly inflated somewhat by dominating a soft schedule. But you know who else dominates a soft schedule? Saint Mary’s. Underestimate SLU at your own risk.

(Likely) Starters and Top Bench:

Height + Position Name Torvik Adj. Efficiency PPG Other Notable Stats
6-3 Guard Dion Brown 3.5 12.4 7.4 rebs; 50% from 3P
6-0 Guard Trey Green 2.1 9.4 40% from 3P
6-5 Wing Quentin Jones 1.7 9.2 1.2 stls; 100% FTs so far
6-6 Forward Amari McCottry 2.4 14.8 6.4 rebs; 1.4 stls; 3.6 TOs
6-10 Center Robbie Avila 3.5 13.6 4.6 rebs; 2.5 asts; 58.3% from 3P
6-5 Wing Ishan Sharma 3.7 10.4 52% from 3P
6-9 Center Paul Otieno 1.7 6.2 1.2 blks; 92.9% FTs
6-6 Wing Kellen Thames 2.4 9.4 4.6 rebs; 91.7% FTs

By looking at some of those percentages, you get a sense of what the Broncos have cut out for them. Here’s are a couple more stats:

Saint Louis ranks:

  • 7th in effective FG%
  • 10th in effective FG% defense
  • 5th in FT%
  • 28th in Defensive RB%
  • 25th in 2P% Defense

In sum, the Billikens are elite on offense and pretty dang good on defense too. They are excellent in the paint, from beyond the arc, and at the line. Oh and they play very, very fast.

Where are the chinks in the armor? Well, for one, the Billikens turn the ball over quite a lot. They rank in the bottom quintile for TOs among all teams, turning it over on over 20% of all their possessions–and that’s against some pretty unimpressive defenses to date. McCottry in particular is a TO machine, but Avila, Brown, and Jones also regularly put the ball in their opponents’ hands. Almost no player has a positive, let alone an impressive, assist-to-TO ratio. There’s no Ensminger on SLU’s team.

Also–and this is where I enter the realm of speculation–I think that SLU’s rebounding and interior play is a bit inflated from bad competition. SLU plays pretty small, overall. Avila is not an interior bully and doesn’t rebound well for his size. Otieno is the only other regular player over 6’8". Brown and McCottry are tough wings gobbling up boards, to be sure. But their only decent opponent so far, Grand Canyon, beat them on the glass. It’s reasonable to think that the others were potentially just outmatched. The Billikens want their points in the fast break or on iso possessions, as shown by the pedestrian assist numbers. I am a skeptic that they are lords of the paint in the half-court.

That said, if SLU doesn’t turn the ball over, they generally score. And if they get fouled, they will convert.

The Broncos will need to slow this game down on the defensive end. SLU has not faced a shot blocker like Oboye or rebounders like Graves and Ensminger. The more passes the Billikens make, the more likely they give the ball to SCU. Avila, for all his hype, is limited in the post-up–he wants to shoot the three or slip past his defender toward the hoop. I think that Ensminger and Darlan will be good matchups for him. And Santa Clara cannot foul like they have been. SLU simply doesn’t miss foul shots.

Overall, this game is the heat check for Santa Clara. Win, and it will be hard for this forum to contain its wildest dreams. Lose, and…well how about just don’t lose?

Prediction: Saint Louis is good, but they will be two timezones away, facing their best opponent yet in their first game away from home. SLU looks primed for mean correction downward; Santa Clara the opposite after two bad shooting games.

So covering my eyes, give me 82-77 Santa Clara. Ensminger gets the game ball with 13 points, 11 rebounds, and 7 assists. SCU heats back up going 46% from downtown.

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I haven’t seen the Billikens play this year, but i remember both both Cam and Tilly lighting Avila up. That said, having a good/great passing big can relieve some of the full court pressure that’ the Broncos now employ ( if he doesn’t turn it over). It should be an interesting matchup.

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We are in the favored position of playing a team who is in position to excel this year, on a neutral court.

A win would be great, a loss would be far from fatal barring an absolute collapse by them down the stretch of the year.

It’s house money, against a team we beat last year, in our time zone.

I won’t dream of 8-0 and a few more votes (okay, I’ve been dreaming out it all day).

Let’s go get these games - happy Thanksgiving to all.

I am especially thankful to those who maintain, curate and otherwise post on this little corner of the internet. Santa Clara has gotten more with a little less for a long time, and that comes down to the individual sacrifice of many, many people. Our little ‘School with a Mission’ keeps moving forward, and I am thankful to be associated with it.

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Broncos receiving 3 votes in the AP poll this week, should we be scared?

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One more concern I have is Avila drawing Bukky into foul trouble. Avila is clever.

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If we can score the ball Like we did at Xavier or Nevada we could live with committing more fouls to keep being aggressive on D.

We have 4 guys at least that can guard Avila, trick is pushing him out to the 3pt line and challenge there NOT dealing with him all night in the low block.

Good litmus test game for both teams.

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I like Graves or even Jake on Avila. Both are savvy defensively. Bukke would make me nervous.

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Our game from last year with them. I think I would probably just have Darlan faceguard him every second he is in the game.

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That would be fun to watch. Though I noticed Darlan picked up two quick fouls a game or two ago, can’t remember which.

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Broncos stay unbeaten, 80-75.

Throw the kitchen sink at Avila. Graves is maybe the best suited to handle him, mobile enough to extend and contest his 3’s, strong and tough enough to hold his own in the post. But Graves is a bit foul prone so will need to throw multiple guys at him. Agree Bukky is an awkward matchup at risk of getting in quick foul trouble trying battle Avila in post or block him out. Would have been great to have Tadjo for this game.

This would be a great time for Darlan to take a step forward offensively. His defense (block shots, deflections, etc.) and rebounding have been better than I expected but offensive production has been modest. The talent is there, just hoping it clicks soon.

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In the last meeting, the Billikens knocked down 12 three-pointers and shot 47% from the field, but the Broncos were able to outlast them by controlling the possession game. Santa Clara won the overall rebounding battle by two and dominated the offensive glass by a +4 margin. They also won the turnover battle by +5, giving them more scoring opportunities despite SLU’s shooting efficiency.

The four-factors profile on Bart Torvik tells a similar story this season. Santa Clara remains a significantly stronger rebounding team than Saint Louis, and the Billikens continue to be turnover-prone. What Saint Louis does well is score efficiently: their high eFG% reflects balanced three-level scoring. Much of this stems from Robbie Avila’s post presence, which forces help rotations and sets up clean catch-and-shoot opportunities. Their elevated eFG%, strong 2P%, and high 3-point attempt rate all point toward a heavy post-touch, inside-out attack.

In terms of schedule strength, Saint Louis has only been seriously tested once. Their wins have come against Indiana–Purdue Fort Wayne (240), Grand Canyon (87), Lindenwood (290), Chicago State (320), and Southeast Missouri State (181). The limited competition makes it harder to gauge how their efficiency will hold up against a well-rounded opponent.

This matchup has the potential to mirror last year’s game, though likely at a slightly lower scoring pace. If Santa Clara plays clean, efficient basketball—attacking the rim, forcing turnovers, and converting those live-ball opportunities—they can control the game. One lingering concern is SCU’s foul rate on both ends; Saint Louis isn’t elite at drawing fouls, but giving them easy points at the free-throw line would be a costly mistake.

Prediction:

Santa Clara 81, Saint Louis 73

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Using last season’s box scores, I asked the new Google Gemini AI Model how it would focus on guarding Avila…

" If you want to beat Saint Louis, the “one thing” you must focus on is counter-intuitive: Force Robbie Avila to be a volume scorer and take away his passing.

The data from the 2024-25 season suggests that Avila is most dangerous to opposing teams when he is the “hub” of the offense (facilitating), not when he is the primary shooter.

Here is the winning blueprint based on the correlations we found:

The Strategy: “Let Him Shoot, Don’t Let Him Pass”

You should single-cover Avila and refuse to send help. If he backs his man down or pops to the 3-point line, let him play 1-on-1. Your goal is to keep his assist numbers low, even if his point total goes high.

The Evidence (Wins vs. Losses):

  • When Avila Facilitates (Wins): In key wins (like against Loyola Chicago), Avila racked up 7 assists. When he is moving the ball, the Saint Louis offense hums, and they are difficult to beat.
  • When Avila Scores Heavily (Losses): In the specific games where he hit that “5 three-pointer” losing threshold, his assist numbers plummeted.
    • Loss vs. George Mason (Feb 11, 2025): He scored 27 points and hit 5 threes, but had only 2 assists.
    • Loss vs. Arkansas State (Mar 18, 2025): He scored 22 points and hit 5 threes, but again was held to 2 assists.

Why this works

When Avila takes 15+ shots and hits 5 threes, it often means the defense stayed home on his teammates (shooters like Gibson Jimerson and Isaiah Swope). By not doubling Avila, you cut off the “oxygen” of the Billikens’ offense. You essentially turn “Cream Abdul-Jabbar” (a point-center who creates easy looks for others) into just another stretch-five shooter.

The winning formula is simple: If Avila scores 25 points on 5 threes but gets only 2 assists, history says you will win. If he scores 14 points but picks apart your defense for 6-8 assists, you will likely lose."

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Honestly one of the best uses of AI I’ve seen. Good analysis by the bots here.

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I like the analysis, but it is focused on last year. Performance is somewhat interdependent on the other players on the court. Is it the same supporting cast?

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I would say the emergence of McCottry combined with the arrival of Brown/Green/Jones are the biggest differences between their squad last year and this season…all the more reason to strictly guard Avila one on one.

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https://x.com/RoccSTL/status/1993769130114109662

Good X thread on tomorrow’s game with comments from St. Louis’ coach.

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ESPN does not love Santa Clara. Gives a near toss up line of SLU -1.5 but says that SCU only has a 35.3% chance to win. That doesn’t make sense to me, Mickey.

@buckets your over/under is 158.5. I think I would take the over here. I feel like SCU has a mean reversion game from beyond the arc at some point this week.

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Happy Thanksgiving to all! I believe the Broncos continued success will be predicated on the play of Jake Ensminger. IMO, he is the “glue” and his contributions can’t be understated. He is not a volume scorer as we all know, but he rebounds, is a very good passer, he defends.

He is a very savvy and cerebral basketball player who has great court awareness. He has been a pleasure to watch and we see him this year being more assertive offensively which is a bonus.

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He is the son of a coach and his father taught him well. He has great bball IQ..and the team knows that. Happy T-Day to all. Let’s beat the Billikens and make it a really special one.

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St. Louis fans seem very confident in their team and like it will be an easy win for them. I hope we can surprise them if so! Really hoping this is a big game for Darlan as well. Go Broncos!

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