WCC Game 12: @ Portland

Tip-off: Thursday, 7pm @ Chiles Center
TV: ESPN+
Line: Torvik: Broncos -14, 89% win prob; ESPN: Broncos 91% win prob, no line yet.

Portland:
The Pilots are 8-16 overall, 3-8 in the WCC and are coming off a moderately surprising 20 pt win @ Pepperdine.
Starters:

  • 6-6 wing Max MacKinnon (13.6pts, 4.5 rebs, 2.9 assists, 38% from 3)
  • 6-4 guard Chris Austin (8.4pts, 39% from 3)
  • 6-2 point guard Vincent Delano ( 6.3pts, 25% from 3)
  • 6-11 forward Bol Dengdit (6.6pts, 4 rebs)
  • 6-10 forward Austin Rapp ( 13.9 pts, 6.2rebs, 1.2 blocks, 38% from 3)
  • key reserves: 6-5 guard Vukasin Masic (8.5 pts, 3.2 assists), 6-5 wing Mikah Ballew (6 pts)

Both MacKinnon and Austin’s play have picked up of late. MacKinnon is averaging over 19pts in WCC play, scored 43pts vs. USD two weeks ago and 24pts vs. Pepp on Saturday and his assists are up to about 4/game. Meanwhile, Austin has averaged nearly 18pts/game over the past 5 games including 9/15 (60%) on 3 ptrs over that stretch.
The 3rd player to watch is freshman Rapp from Australia. He’s attempting 8 threes/game and has attempted twice as many 3’s as anyone else on the squad and provides them with the inside out offense with a frontcourt guy shooting 3’s that Leggans system seems to love. Ensminger and O’Neil will likely get the assignment on him and will need to extend their perimeter D to take away his 3’s. Rapp is fairly physical and solid defender and rebounder and a lock for WCC all frosh squad IMO.
After those three, production drops off significantly for the Pilots.
As a team, the Pilots have been terrible on defense, bottom of the league in most categories including 3pt % D and rebounding. Sounds like an open door for another big night on offense for the Broncos.

The Broncos need to stay focused and disciplined and strive to dominate each of these next 2 games vs. lessor opponents. The Broncos need to peak down this final stretch of 7 games and not play down to weaker opponents and build some momentum heading in to SMC game next week.

Prediction: Broncos cruise, 87-71.

Some other random Pilot facts:

  • Pilot 7-1 back-up center Jermaine Ballisager-Webb was on the roster with Johnny O’Neil at American Univ.
  • Chris Austin is in his 7th season in college hoops. He played 9 games for Fordham in 2018/19 but was injured and rec’d a medical redshirt, had the ‘free’ COVID season of 2020/21 transferred to Portland for the 2021/22 season, suffered a serious compound leg fracture in the 2022 post season and sat out 2022/23 recovering and redshirted and then returned last season.
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Who was the USF player who seemed like he was there for 6 or 7 years? I just can’t seem to remember his name. Probably was 2 decades ago, maybe longer.

Last year’s overtime loss broke a 16-game win streak against the Pilots. It’s not exactly GU-Pepperdine, but 16 games is a pretty good streak and was one of the feathers in Sendek’s cap. Ah well. Time to start a new one, I suppose.

Here’s a streak that’s still alive: SCU has scored 100 points against the Pilots in 3 straight seasons, including once at Chiles (Justice had 22 points, Podz was Podz and got 15 rebounds). I’ll predict that streak continues: 101-81 Santa Clara with Tongue getting a nice 20 off of aggressive play inside.

Other random point of interest: Jennifer Mountain, Gonzaga alumna and former SCU women’s basketball coach, does a lot of the radio calls for the Pilots and will be live for the ESPN+ call tonight. Good to see her doing well and still associated with the game.

Last random bit: Pilots fans sometimes talk about the “Chiles Effect,” one of those sports superstitions that in this case refers to an opposing player getting extremely hot in the UP gym, especially from 3. Stewart, Bal, Bryan, and O’Neil are all very capable of getting a touch of the Chiles Effect, if it’s real, but man would I love to see Ensminger just nail a couple for his confidence.

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In the older days of travel pairs where the game @Portland either came just before or just after @GU - I think to opposing fans, the Chiles Effect, meant either blowing it against Portland because your team was either 1) looking ahead to GU and underestimating the Pilots, 2) demoralized after getting destroyed by GU or 3) demoralized by a narrow loss against GU.

I think a Portland fan would counter that they don’t remember as many of those Pilot wins as we do.

Would love to see the other Chiles Effect in action tomorrow.

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Has game started yet?

Yes but ESPN fritzing out again. I’m seeing if the Hulu workaround will work this time but no luck so far.

Update: Just got Hulu to work.

Chiles effect early for bal

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How do we get in on Hulu? I ran a search and nothing for Santa Clara

It has to be connected to your ESPN account as a bundle package.

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Struggling to score inside like they’re playing SMC rather than Portland. Mahi desperately needs to work on his shot in close. He can get deep in there almost at will but one of the worst finishers at the rim we’ve ever seen.

EDIT: Just as I post this, spamming the pick and roll to Cam is going great.

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Chiles Effect going both ways this half.

Why do our bigs keep shooting threes early in the clock? They are 22% on 70 attempts in conference???

Femme…I have ESPN plus separately, and not the bundle package so not getting game either. It looks like Cam was terrific in 1st half.

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I finally got in on ESPN. Thanks for heads up!

Stats are wrong. Cam had 19 pts. 2 boards. 2 assists.

Annoyed San Fran beat St Mary’s. Now they will want payback. But they can take that out next game before ours. Cuz we need to go there and romp them.

Dons looking like they may just get the Gaels…

Gaels are shooting terribly, even with open looks. But USF is revealing a big weakness when Saxen gets switched onto a quick guard with lots of space.

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They are not enjoying a “Chiles Effect” from three on the hilltop tonight… did I see they’re like 3/20 or something?

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USF gets it done. SCU now really needs a strong finish to stay in position for 3rd. If Tilly just hit that free throw…

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I didn’t catch why Ensminger is out. Illness/injury?

He is out with the flu

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