This thread is the seven stages of grief and we haven’t even hit March yet
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Or as I’ve been telling people: “I’ve been afflicted with March Madness a month early.”
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CBS Sports is updating Bracketology daily and Broncos are hanging in there this morning as part of Last 4 In. (Feb 27th)
Santa Clara vs Texas A&M (East)
Cal vs TCU (Midwest)
Winner of SCU/A&M would play St. John’s.
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We know the selection committee places a great deal of emphasis on WAB rankings. As of this morning, SCU checks in at #41. The teams presently below them.
#42………Auburn
#43………CAL
#44…..….Texas
#45………TCU
#46………Ohio St.
USC checks in at (47), and both MWC teams check in at (52) New Mexico and (53) San Diego State.
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No fanbase is getting more mileage out of maybe, just maybe, going to Dayton!
Lunardi does indeed have us among the last four in today.
The teams looming in the rear-view have bigger names and more chances for a good win than we do… it’s gonna take some luck and the best way will be for the Broncos to make their own luck by winning the next three games. That would require doing something we haven’t done since…. Lord knows when - win a game in the WCC Tournament as an underdog.
For the last half-decade we’ve been checking the NIT bubble at this point in the year, and for the decade-plus before that, we weren’t even that lucky… Bronco program stock chart is clearly up-and-to-the-right.
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The Athletic further reinforcing what most of us think. Beat SMC and we can feel safe. If not, then Selection Sunday will be very stressful.
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Pacific is at home against USF for the final game of conference play. If SCU beats OSU and UoP beats USF, the Tigers will take 4th place and likely (presuming they win the quarterfinal) go up against Gonzaga in the semis. Pacific played competitively against the Zags, losing 71-62 in Spokane. Would be nice to see them win.
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This weekend’s bubble games (high anxiety edition). Seeds based on Lunardi’s ESPN bracket that was released this morning. The #9 seeds hardly seem tracking at this point, but I guess there’s still enough time for one of them to finish the year on a 4 game losing streak. Other than our own game, I believe the most critical games are three Big10 matchups of bubble teams hosting a highly ranked team: USC vs Nebraska; Ohio St vs Purdue; and Indiana vs Michigan State. I’d expect any of these teams to catapult over SCU with a big win.
Friday
3 PM Miami-OH (11 seed) @ Western Michigan
Saturday
9 AM Seton Hall (next 4 out) @ UConn(1)
9:30 VCU (next 4 out) vs Fordham
10 AM Missouri (10) @ Mississippi St.
11 AM Clemson (9) vs Louisville (6)
11 AM Cincinnati (next 4 out) vs Oklahoma St
11 AM UCLA (9) @ Minnesota - You’ll see my daughter storming the court after the Gophers take this one.
11 AM SDSU (11) @ New Mexico (First 4 out) - I’m confused about where Lunardi really has the Aztecs. He has them as an 11 seed, however he has all 4 of the “Last 4 byes” as 10 seeds. I assume it’s because he’s trying to follow the rules about preventing conference foe rematches in the early rounds. The point is that he has SDSU as the 5th to last team in. Given our precarious position, I think we gotta root for the Aztecs here. A Lobos loss at home tomorrow, followed by a road loss next week at Utah St will put them on death’s door heading into the MWC tournament.
12:30 Georgia (9) vs South Carolina
1 PM USC (First 4 out) vs Nebraska (3) - USC’s last chance for a Q1 win before the Big10 tournament.
1 PM Cal (First 4 out) vs Pitt - Cal is well positioned with their last 3 regular season games vs teams in the bottom 5 of the conference. Similar to SCU’s next 2 games, a loss to one of these teams could be deadly.
1 PM Texas (10) @ A&M (10) - It shouldn’t matter so much who loses, as long as they lose badly and continue to lose games next week.
3 PM SMU (10) @ Stanford
3:30 TCU (11) @ KSU - Great opportunity for a bad loss that would help SCU.
5 PM SCU (11) vs Oregon St - Must win, obviously.
5 PM UCF (9) vs Baylor
5:30 VA Tech (next 4 out) @ UNC (6)
5:30 Auburn (11) vs Ole Miss - Auburn getting a tremendous amount of respect for a 15-13 team. Would love to see them get exposed with a bad loss here to reduce the # of teams we’re competing with for the final spots.
Sunday
10:30 Ohio St (first 4 out) vs Purdue (2) - The Buckeyes’ last chance for a Q1 win before the Big10 tournament.
12:45 Indiana (11) vs Michigan St. (4) - The Hoosiers will get another shot at a Q1 win next weekend at Ohio St.
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I appreciate these detailed rooting guides! It really enables this pre-March Madness roller coaster vibe we’ve all been riding.
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Thanks. Nerding out on this stuff is a nice distraction from work!
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FWIW, here is the Torvik rooting guide:
I check that daily. But I think I like RockMcD’s more!
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The Torvik rooting guide is super confusing. How on earth did they determine that there are conflicting interests at play in the UCLA @ Minnesota game? And if I understand “leverage” right, how in the world did they determine that the Queens @ Central Arkansas game is way more important than the TCU game, and that the St. Louis U. game is the least important of all (and that we want them to lose to Duquesne). 
Seton Hall, UCLA, SDSU all lose, with USC and Cal well on their way… Those are all peers right around the cut line.
VCU, Mizzou, Clemson, Cincy, Georgia all win.
Lots of basketball left, but largely good bounces so far for Santa Clara, IMO.
I don’t know if there’s much regional consideration vis a vis having the whole country tune in, but it’s a bad year for West Coast hoops… I imagine UCLA finds their way in, along with GU, SMC - but SDSU, Santa Clara, Cal, USC all teetering, Stanford a way long shot. A Big West team will likely come from California, but still - slim pickings in the Pacific time zone.
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Cal and USC both losing by double digits at home is huge. Buh-bye.
I agree that UCLA is probably out of reach for us, but my daughter will take credit for cheering from the Gophers student section. After the game she sent me the “You’re Welcome!” gif from Moana.
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UCLA-Minnesota was a good one - I know Minn isn’t going to be a Q1 for us with that tough losing streak (don’t let me dream about them getting IU again, too)… but we did beat them and somewhere deep in the algorithms, their success helps us - and when that success comes against another bubble team, so much the better!
A stat flashed up showing the road record of the west coast Big 10 teams - grim stuff. When they start losing home games, it gets really difficult to get to the dance for Cal or Stanford. The Cal game was a total head scratcher.
Ole Miss wins @ Auburn, UNC beats VA Tech…
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Both big results for SCU. The one bad result was TCU winning, but the rest have mostly been favorable.
As largely irrelevant bonuses: Loyola Chicago and Xavier both won to help SCU ever so slightly in the metrics. Loyola Chicago will continue to be a horrible, horrible loss. But is it too much to ask that they at least get out of the 300s?
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About as close to perfect day as we could ask for. No bubble teams scored upset wins, 5 of them lost to non-bubble teams, and 2 of those were losses to Quad3 opponents (Cal and Auburn).
Tomorrow’s games for Ohio St (vs Purdue) and Indiana (vs Sparty) are HUGE for us.
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Better for SCU if the Gaels beat the Zags tonight, correct? Not enough to stress over, but I figure that would make a semifinal loss to SMC more defensible.