Yea. I also think it’d be better to face a SMC that has a quad 1 win. If they don’t win this game, then we’d have to face a more desperate SMC team. I don’t like the thought of that.
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I want SCU to finish tied for second rather than alone in third. But I think metrics-wise you’re probably right, and it will be nice to send away the Zags having not won a WCC Championship outright since 2022.
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Are we not now alone in 2nd with GU and SMC tied for 1st? Or am I thinking about it wrong?
Alone in 3rd, with 2 teams ahead of us.
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Ah, duh - too late at night.
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Here’s a different way of looking at our bubble status. Let me know if anyone sees any flaws in my logic:
- The cutline is #46.
- As of right now, I think there are 40 teams clearly ahead of SCU. The last 6 of those are, in no particular order:
- Georgia
- Missouri
- UCLA
- Texas
- SMU
- UCF
- I think those teams could survive a loss to a good team in the regular season plus another good team in their conference tournament and remain ahead of us after a hypothetical SCU loss to St. Mary’s. But if they have a bad loss then they could fall into our group.
- After that I count 7 teams that are in a logjam for the last 6* spots (*see below*), in no particular order:
- SDSU
- A&M
- TCU
- New Mexico
- SCU
- Indiana
- Ohio St
- After that, the following 9 teams ought to be clearly below SCU and will need to pull off an upset along the way in order to leapfrog SCU:
- Auburn
- Cal
- VCU
- Cincinnati
- USC
- VA Tech
- Seton Hall
- West Virginia
- Stanford
- Don’t forget about potential bid stealing that could move the cutline from 46 down to 45 or 44 or 43. The most likely candidates come from the following 3 conferences:
- Atlantic 10 - High risk: If SLU doesn’t win their conference tournament, then a bid gets stolen. VCU could be the team that steals this bid. Hard to imagine VCU getting an at-large bid if some other A-10 team steals a bid.
- MAC - High risk: If Miami-OH doesn’t win their conference tournament, then a bid gets stolen.
- Mountain West - Moderate risk: Utah St is a lock. SDSU or New Mexico may be worthy of an at-large bid anyway by the time they reach the finals so I don’t think either of them would actually stealing a bid, per se. The bid stealing would happen from a 4th team such as Nevada or Grand Canyon beating Utah St in the semifinals and then beating the winner of NM & SDSU in the finals.
- Bid stealing from any other conference is theoretically possible, but would be a big surprise.
Before today, I thought we would be ass out if we don’t beat SMC in the WCC semifinals, but now I think we could survive it after all.
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Here’s a helpful schedule for conference championships that are starting this week.. fyi our games will start on Sunday at either 5:30/8p.
Love this. Great analysis and big props on the write-up—this is exactly the kind of logic we need to quiet the Swig Cynics (or do we like Denison Downers? Darlan Downers?). Nice to see more folks coming around to the fact that the field is actually quite viable for us.
The only flaw I see is that Texas and UCF don’t feel “clearly ahead” of SCU anymore. Following our win over Oregon State and their recent stumbles, we’ve actually jumped both in the NET (we’re at #41, Texas is at #45, and UCF is at #46). If the committee prioritizes “Wins Above Bubble” (WAB), where we’re sitting at #38, we have a cleaner resume and a higher floor than both of them right now.
It’s funny looking back at the “have to” language from 10 days ago—some swore we’d screwed without a win in Moraga! We aren’t just in the logjam - we’re currently at the front of the line! Go Broncos!
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Thank you! I put the teams in those groups based on what I’ve anecdotally seen in some of the mock brackets from the last couple weeks (ESPN, USA Today, CBS, Bauertology). The teams that I put in our cohort are the ones that have been living in the “last 4 in, last 4 out”, adjusted for movement that I think ought to happen based on yesterday’s results (i.e. I dropped A&M into our group after their home loss to Texas, and dropped Auburn & Cal below our group after their bad losses).
Texas and UCF have been consistently ahead of the “last 4 in” and I don’t see that changing quite yet. I think Texas separated themselves from A&M by beating them on their home court, and I don’t think UCF will be punished significantly for losing to the #50 net team at home on the heels of a statement win at BYU earlier in the week. We’ll see if that’s true as new brackets get released over the next couple days.
Perhaps I was premature to count out Cal for their Q3 loss. CBS still has them in their “last 4 in”, along with VCU. And amazingly they have us skipping past Dayton straight to the round of 64.
I’ll adjust my list as new mock brackets get released.
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@Midwestbronco14 According to the WCC website we will play in the nightcap of the doubleheader both Sunday and (assuming we advance to the semifinals) Monday.
2026 Credit Union 1 West Coast Conference Basketball Championship - West Coast Conference
Great stuff Rock. Appreciate your contributions here.
North Texas just beat an above average UAB. Neither are in the bubble discussion but in general we want all our opponents (except bubble teams) to win as much as possible.
Our N Texas win is likely stuck at a Quad III but it moves metrics by a least a few decimal points….it can’t hurt.
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Need Purdue to figure this out…
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Ohio St scored an upset, but Indiana didn’t. Neither did USC yesterday. So in the immortal words of Meatloaf, “2 out of 3 ain’t bad”.
Also, this afternoon 26-4 Belmont lost to Illinois St, which should put to bed any notion that they should get an at-large bid should they lose again in the MVC tournament.
Overall a pretty good weekend for SCU.
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Five Star still has the Broncos in but makes clear that it’s a dicey situation:
I find myself paying closer attention to the WAB instead of the NET. As of this morning (March 2nd), we check in at #38. UCLA is right above us at #37. The following bubble teams are presently below us:
Ohio St………………39
Texas……………..…..40
NC State………..….41
New Mexico…….42
Texas A&M………..43
SMU…………………….44
TCU……………………..45
VCU……………………..46
USC……………………..47
Belmont…………….48
All teams below Belmont have a negative figure attached which doesn’t bode well for their at large chances. Teams included here are CAL, Auburn, Indiana, San Diego St, Va Tech, and Seton Hall. However, these teams will be presented Quad 1 opportunities both this week and next week in their respective conference tournaments. There is no debate that we need to win our quarterfinal game on Sunday. A loss would end the bracketology conversation. Do we need more than that? Possibly, but our fate may lie beyond our control with how these other teams play in the next 2 weeks.
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Note, though, that the Torvik WAB is slightly different and more favorable to SCU than the official NET WAB. Each is derivative of the underlying ranking methodology, and Torvik is nicer to the Broncos than the NET, so that difference shows up in the WAB.
The NET WAB has SCU at 41 with the main differences being Ohio State and Texas being ahead of SCU rather than behind. You can find and sort the NET/WAB here:
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Patty, the site that I was referencing is wabwatch.com
I assume this site incorporates Torvik based on your comment.
Good Matrix of where all the Bubble Teams reside in various metrics.
https://x.com/bigunderdogblog/status/2028475540374536577/photo/1
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I think there is a scenario where a quarterfinal win somehow gets us into the dance. I did not think that was remotely possible two weeks ago. The last few weeks have been good.
Bids will be stolen and teams will pick up wins, so it’s still unlikley, but not impossible.
Shout out to Mia O’Brien of ESPN Radio who tossed us a singular vote despite our game against SMC - who now appears at No. 21 as the Zags fall to 12…
Should we be ranked? No.
Do I like to see votes? Absolutely.
On general bracketology, I am leery to see so many power conference teams floating around us - they will have more chances to burnish resumes (or, I suppose, falter).
Indiana and Ohio State still play one another - presume the winner of that game is likely in barring something strange.
VCU lacks a Q1 win and, like us, gets relatively few chances to get one at this point.
Our resume goes into plaster for a week which is probably more good than bad. I vacillate between feeling good and feeling bad about our chances with just a semi-final win followed by a loss to SMC at 25-8.
It’s going to go down to the wire…
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