I think you mean a quarterfinal win
Yes…
Seattle (118) and Pacific (115) are about the same metric value and as others have said, would prefer whoever is tired-er, i.e., Seattle - who we only played once in conference.
I have a feeling that beating the same team three times is somehow trickier.
Much useless hand-ringing to come between now and then, but I do think with two wins in Vegas, we would be in. SMC is peaking at the right time, though.
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Lunardi has us in, and closer to the Last Four Byes than the First Four Out (indeed, just one spot away).
I know we’ve discussed that Lunardi is perhaps not actually the most accurate, but I think being in a relatively safe spot in what is surely the most popular mass media prognosticator is good.
See also his defense of Miami in response to commentator (and former Auburn coach) Bruce Pearl’s argument that 15-14 Auburn is more deserving of a spot than 29-0 Miami (OH).
Yesterday’s Bauetology has us in approximately the spot. No exposition, however.
Among fiddly places to be, it seems we’re in a relatively good one. Lots of hoops left to play. I worry particularly about Miami losing in the MAC tournament, or VCU winning the A-10.
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Here is this week’s bubble viewing guide (“Holy shit it’s March” edition).
With not many games left, I’m gonna sort this differently than I have previously, and with slight adjustment to how I did it on Sunday.
- The cut line is currently at 46. The top 42 go straight to the round of 64, while 43-46 go to Dayton for the play-in games.
- Based on small sample size of a few mock brackets (ESPN, CBS, Bauer, On3, and USA Today), I think there are 38 teams (including Miami-OH) that are comfortably ahead of SCU because they’re not showing up in anybody’s “last 4 byes”. Teams like Georgia, UCF, Texas, and Missouri. I’m not going to list their games here.
- The next group is 3 teams (39-41) that seem to be distinctly ahead of SCU but are not very much at risk of missing the tournament. I think we can compete with them for a bye if we beat SMC, so I’ll list their games below. These teams are UCLA, SMU, and A&M.
- Then there are 10 teams (42-51) including SCU that are really on the bubble. The 5 that are barely in most brackets are TCU, NM, SCU, Ohio St, and Auburn; and the 5 that are barely out are Indiana, VCU, VA Tech, SDSU, and Cal. At the current cut line 5 of these teams will be in and 5 will be out. But the cutline is tenuous [see Bid Stealing below].
- After that there are some teams that show up on people’s “Next 4 out” but nobody seems to be arguing for their inclusion right now. That could change with an upset or two, so I’ll track their games as well. These teams are Cincinnati, USC, Seton Hall, West Virginia, and Stanford.
- Bid Stealing: I think there are 4 conferences to monitor for potential bid stealing:
- Atlantic 10 (high risk) - If anybody besides St. Louis U. wins the A-10 tourney, this goes from a 1 bid league to a 2 bid league. This includes VCU who is already a bubble team.
- MAC (high risk) - If anybody besides Miami-OH wins the MAC tourney, it becomes a 2-bid league.
- Mountain West (moderate risk) - If SDSU or New Mexico gets the auto-bid, then the other team is probably going to be out anyway, so it would probably require some other team getting the auto-bid in order to make this a 3 or 4 team conference.
- American (low risk) - Would USF join the at-large conversation if they lose in their conference tournament? Probably not, but another regular season loss should remove all doubt.
So here are the games to follow over the next 3 days:
True Bubble teams:
Tue 4 PM TCU @ TTU (4 seed in ESPN bracket)
Tue 4 PM VCU vs George Mason (GMU is 22-7)
Tue 6 PM VT vs BC
Tue 6 PM SDSU @ Boise St (this is a Quad 1 game for SDSU)
Tue 7 PM Auburn vs LSU ( I don’t understand the metrics and groupthink that is causing all of these so-called experts to keep Auburn ion the bubble after they lose over and over again. Somehow SDSU got punished worse for losing a Q1 road game at The Pit than Auburn did for losing a Q3 home game.)
Wed 3:30 Indiana vs Minnesota (The Gophers are playing great right now.)
Wed 4 PM Cal @ GT
Wed 4:30 Ohio St @ Penn St
Wed 7 PM New Mexico vs Colorado St
Slightly ahead of us:
Tue 4 PM A&M vs Kentucky (6 seed)
Tue 8 PM UCLA vs Nebraska (3 seed)
Wed 4 PM SMU @ Miami-FL (8 seed)
[Note that all 3 of these games are against really good teams, so don’t expect either of these teams to fall out of this category with a loss.]
Outside looking in:
Tue 4 PM Seton Hall @ Xavier
Tue 5 PM WV @ KSU
Tue 6 PM Cincy @ BYU (6 seed) - Cincy may be the only team in this group to really worry about, with an opportunity for two really good wins this week vs BYU and TCU.
Wed 6 PM Stanford @ Notre Dame
Wed 7:30 USC @ Washington
Teams in line for an auto-bid that could also get an at-large bid:
Tue 4 PM Miami-OH vs Toledo
Thur 6 PM USF @ Memphis
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Thanks for reminding me that today is a Lunardi update day.
The Bracket Watch write-up is interesting:
“I try to avoid debates without clear right or wrong answers, but Bruce Pearl’s argument against Miami (Ohio) as an at-large team requires context. First, high-major status aside, we have no idea whether Auburn is the better basketball team. Second, Miami has won four more true road games than Auburn has played, and road teams in men’s college basketball win less than one-third of the time. Finally, in the modern history of the NCAA tournament, great mid-majors have won almost twice as many games as middling high-majors, despite fewer bids and weaker seeding. Now, I suppose it’s possible Miami is the worst undefeated team of all time, and Auburn is the best .500 team we’ve ever seen – but it’s way more likely Pearl would be better off leaving Bracketology to the professionals.” (my highlight in bold)
I’d find it hard to believe that the selection committee would ignore that stat. However, the question would have to be what constitutes a “great” mid-major?
Also interesting, the Lunardi bracket has us in Dayton playing tOSU. That would be a fun matchup of Bukky against Tilly. And SMC is slotted at a 7-seed. Just a week ago, before the game against SCU, they were in a 9- or 10-seed slot. Amazing how they jumped up (in NET also) after the convincing win against the Broncos.
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Strange, right! Saint Louis is a tournament lock at this point, with two Q-1 wins - one of which is us! We’re a Q1 win for New Mexico, too.
The computers like us and our resume way more than my jittery Bronco-fan nerves do. I’m pleasantly surprised that our 1-1 week seems to, if anything, have put us in tiny bit better spot than we were a week ago. Of course, a win would have really helped, but we lost and despite that, very, very few folks have us out at the moment.
Interesting to see two other teams with Q4 losses in the at-large picture now, too - NC State and TCU. Cincy has one as well.
I feel better than I thought I would putting our resume ‘on ice’ all week. Bubble teams are where they are because they are imperfect and given the chance, can and often do lose.
Unfortunately someone has to win Indiana v. Ohio State.
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I have only been following bracketology and letting the real brains here try to make sense of it. It makes my head hurt.
But now that we are here, and if I think I am reading what I am reading…Assuming the Broncos are dancing, they are a lock for Dayton, yes? They can’t move up or down, unless they hit the finals or win the tourney??
If that is a yes, what are the chances that they end up in St’ Louis or Oklahoma City?
I assume the committee doesn’t want to put them against the Lobos again.
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I actually think SCU may skip Dayton if they win two more (i.e. the quarters plus an SMC rematch). If they lose to SMC, then they’ll be happy to make the Tournament at all.
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I am merely an avid watcher of the brackets and certainly don’t have it perfect, however, I think it is not a foregone conclusion that SCU is in Dayton.
It is, however, highly likely.
There are only four outcomes left, assuming no upset of GU:
- Lose in the Quarterfinals against Seattle/Pacific (24-8)
Buy your NIT tickets now.
- Lose in the Semis Against SMC (25-8)
Broncos sweat it out and hope for a lot of help, and if they get an at-large, it’s almost certainly Dayton.
- Lose in the Final against GU (26-8)
Hard to say, but as Patty suggests, it’s an 11 seed that may or may not be Dayton.
- Win the WCC Tournament (27-7)
The 27-7 Broncos might get a 10 Seed or a first round bye 11 Seed. Cannot be left home, of course.
If #4 occurs, I’d be absolutely shocked.
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Ok. I will keep my Southwest flight credits in my wallet a bit longer.
Note, getting to STL from SJC on Thursday on SW is a wallet buster. Good god.
I agree with Patty & Nashty above, with the additional clarification that if we win the WCC tournament we automatically avoid Dayton. The Dayton play-in round is only for the last 4 at-large berths. I think this is the same thing that Nashty was saying, I just wanted to underscore that point in case it wasn’t totally clear.
As for location it’s hard to predict and I don’t have a great understanding of how they do it. My general understanding is that they give location preference to the highest seeds, and at the #11 seed level it’s almost random which of the 8 locations we’ll be placed into. I’m hoping for San Diego, which is where I live.
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Yup. Also would need to find a different airline if we do go to Dayton.
Dayton isn’t even listed as a destination on Southwest.
I am too lazy to look this up, but why Dayton???
Why not put the first four in a location in the midwest people can get to? Say…Chicago? Do it at Loyola, DePaul or Northwestern?
Is the idea that it goes someplace that there would never be a first round games?
Or do they not consider fan travel bc people would rather wait and go to the First round game if a team makes it?
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I was thinking the same thing! The play-in games should be in a city that has an airline hub.
Dayton is going to be tough to pull off.
Finally had a bad night on the bubble. It had been a while. SDSU losing though would be good.
Yeah, there were lots of matchups to think might help the cause, and essentially every single thing broke against us - except SDSU.
TCU, Georgia, Cincy, VCU, Miami (OH), Va Tech, Seton Hall, Auburn, TAMU, Georgia and likely UCLA all winners.
Lots of basketball left, but this was not a good day for the Bronco bubble.
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I think most of the upsets that happened last night (A&M, UCLA, and TCU) were by teams that were slightly ahead of us which damages our chances of getting a bye to the round of 64, but doesn’t do much damage to our odds of getting in overall. SDSU’s loss helped us in that regard.
Still plenty of games left to be played in addition to the great unknown of how the committee members will view us, but it’s starting to feel like we are filtering into that Dayton round, regardless of whether we win or lose our semifinal game vs SMC.
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I am suspending belief until I see it on the screen on Selection Sunday at this point.
I’m worried about Cincy, Auburn and Va Tech.
Feels like UNM and SDSU are the SMC/SCU of the MW, with potential circularity of results making a case for 3 bids.
Insane at some level that the MW is looking at 2 bids and the Big East at 2 as well, and there is still not much room for an additional WCC/A-10/MAC team. It’s power conference also-rans all over the place.
VCU is going to Dayton anyway - to play the Flyers on Friday… I hope they drop that one. Dayton is a good team and tough place to play. It’s a Q1 game if they do win, which would be bad.
There’s certainly enough high major lurkers and potential mid-major conference tourney bid-stealing to send us to the NIT.
I think what your hinting at, though, is a lot of folks passed us up and there remains room at the Inn, with not that many more contenders behind us - 13 loss Oklahoma, 13 loss Cincy, mediocre Cal and Stanford, etc.
We need ‘chalk’ in lots of conference tournament games.
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Bracket Matrix now has 132 brackets posted with ALL updated either March 1st, 2nd, or yesterday (3rd). Upon review of the bubble at large teams:
Texas A&M………IN 131/132
UCLA………………..IN 130/132
Santa Clara……IN 128/132
TCU……………………IN 127/132
New Mexico……IN 124/132
Indiana……………..IN 49/132 (Last team In)
Others that show up in brackets:
VCU…………………….46
Auburn………………31
San Diego St…….17
Va Tech…………….…9
CAL………………………4
That’s it! So, this is NOT a deep pool of bubble contenders at the moment. USC was completely shutout.
I don’t think it was posted here but USC’s best player Baker-Mazara was dismissed from the team over the weekend as well
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