UCF getting crushed right now.
Write-up from Basket Under Review:
Santa Clara Broncos
Santa Clara could have removed all doubt if it upset Gonzaga to win the WCC Tournament. Although the Broncos were unable to do so, their semifinal victory over Saint Mary’s was pivotal in staying away from doubling the deodorant. The Broncos now own two wins over the at-large field for beating the Gaels twice, once now on a neutral site, plus their nonconference win over McNeese is now over an automatic qualifier. Santa Clara cannot improve its resume more before Selection Sunday as it is out of games, but it has put itself in a decent position for selection. The top 42 in the WAB all danced last season, and the Broncos rank 37th; they also average in the mid-30s across predictive metrics. They appear to be hinging on the No. 10/11 lines but figure to be more of a Last Four Byes team than sent to Dayton.
Five Star Bracketology has this to say (same link as above but updated as of yesterday’s games):
Alright we now know the final look of the Santa Clara resumé after the WCC champ game loss to Gonzaga last night. They fought valiantly but the Zags surged the final 8-10 minutes and pulled away after the Broncos lead for much of the game. I would imagine if you’re a committee member you walk away impressed by both teams, giving Santa Clara their flowers for hanging tough with the Zags but also recognizing that’s a legit 3/4 seed right now who just has another gear they can get to. So, they pass the eye test is what I’m saying, and with the predictive metrics in the high 30’s and results based in exactly the same spot I would confidently say they’re in as of today. I may need to come in later this week depending on what chaos transpires, but with 2 wins over St. Mary’s they may have done enough. We have to recognize beyond the metrics they do only have those 2 wins to bring to the table, as they were swept by Gonzaga and did little in the non-con. However, in this weak of a bubble, if there aren’t major bid stealers I see Santa Clara dancing. It may be in Dayton when it’s all said and done, but it’s dancing for the first time in 30 years nonetheless. At this point, you just have to root for minimum chaos and for the bubble teams behind them to continue to lose games.
And finally, most encouraging is CBS Sports, which is updating its bubble watch in real time and now has SCU as a lock after this morning’s results.
The WCC appears destined to send three teams to the NCAA Tournament after Santa Clara crept from “almost there” to lock status on Thursday morning because of favorable results elsewhere on the bubble. Gonzaga won the WCC Tournament during its final year in the league, but Saint Mary’s and Santa Clara have clearly done enough to be at-large teams in a year where the bubble isn’t very good. There’s not even a question on the Gaels, but Santa Clara’s case was at least somewhat up for debate following its loss to the Zags in the WCC Tournament final. That should no longer be the case, as Santa Clara ranks as a top-40 team across the board in the metrics used by the selection committee.
4 Likes
Here’s another estimation of the Out vs. Dayton vs. Bye breakdown for the bubble and near-bubble teams:
1 Like
@PattyMac - Thanks for posting those. There seems to be diversity of opinion on UCF, otherwise that post from T3 sounds about right. That guy and Bauer both have UCF ahead of the “last 4 byes” group, while ESPN, CBS, On3, USA Today, and SI all have UCF only 1 or 2 spots ahead of SCU. I have to keep reminding myself that this is all just sausage and ultimately the selection committee could have a wildly different view of certain teams than what the bracketology geeks have been predicting.
3 Likes
This part is spot on. And it’s why, even after our win over Pacific (and before the SMC win), I was not quite as confident as the general consensus on this board. Logic, reasoning, and the metrics don’t literally determine the selection or seeding….by comparison, it is not the CFP playoff system for college football. It still comes down to individual humans making decision and they don’t have to truly justify those decisions. I don’t have much faith that they’ll pick a mid-major over a power conf school when the metrics are very similar.
The committee chair might be interviewed after the selections and explain some of their reasoning but it’s very easy to cherry pick whatever reason they choose to justify their decision….just pick the criteria or two that supports their decision and minimize criteria and metrics that contradict their decision.
Our SMC win combined with losses by bubble teams gives me more confidence in a positive outcome for the Broncos…..hopefully including not being sent to Dayton.
2 Likes
The way you explained that is EXACTLY like the CFP committee for college football. 
1 Like
Auburn was up by 10 with 10:26 left and then gave up a 20-0 (and counting) run. I swear, this year’s bubble is like nuclear level toxic and every team is running away from it except for Santa Clara running towards the bubble with its hazmat suit on. Love it!
7 Likes
For the love of all that is good, can we finally be spared any more talk of a 16 loss team getting in? Unfortunately. Probably not…..
5 Likes
I remember making a trip up for the 95 ( I think) Pepperdine-SCU first round game. The Waves were down to eight guys, we have the best player in the conference and a solid team. Looked like a sure thing. Apparently the Broncos did too. Soul crushing. On top of that, I rented a Mustang convertible to enjoy the Bay Area Spring. Of course, it rained.
5 Likes
@jcardoza77 - That was my senior year, 1996. And if I remember correctly, the one good player that Pepperdine had left the game in the first half due to an injury. Incredibly we lost to that terrible Pepperdine team twice at Toso within a few weeks of each other. Makes it all the more impressive and not to be taken for granted that we ran the table undefeated against the “also-rans” of our conference this season.
3 Likes
The fact there were no gut punch conference games a lá Loyola Chicago was a very cool thing. No collapses reflects a whole new mindset and talent that’s hopefully sustainable.
5 Likes
thanks… he must have been hoping they would get a quick bucket and then use his timeout. I’m quite glad it worked out the way it did. Dare I say the most pivotal SCU basket in the last 30 years?
5 Likes
Second most was Elijah’s 3.
6 Likes
Might be the most pivotal basket (to SCU’s advantage) in the history of SCU basketball, given the stakes. I can’t think of another basket that had so much riding on it.
If you count a free throw as a basket, perhaps the most pivotal basket (to SCU’s disadvantage) in SCU history was March 13, 1954 at Gill Coliseum in Corvallis, Oregon. Western Region Final against the USC Trojans. Game went to overtime, in the first OT period both teams scored 8 points each. In the second OT, whether through great defense, bad shooting, exhaustion, or a combination of all three, the Trojans scored the only point in the period, preventing the Broncos from going to its second Final Four in 3 years. My dad traveled to that game, gave him a chance to visit family and watch hoops. He was heartbroken!
If you want to think about how the basketball landscape was different back then, the Final Four in 1954 was La Salle, Penn State, Bradley, and USC.
Perhaps the second most pivotal basket to SCU’s disadvantage was Sat, Jan 29, 1977. The Broncos played undefeated and #1 ranked USF at Toso and lost on a final seconds basket by Chubby Cox. That Dons team went 26-0 before losing the last game of the regular season (dropping to #3 in the nation) and lost the first game in the Big Dance (dropping to #8 in the final poll). Would’ve been nice to take that team down.
6 Likes
While we’re at it, any recollection or knowledge of how we lost in 2OT in 1968-69 to SJSU, the only loss of the season?
When SCU lost in 1952 to the Clyde Lovelette Kansas Jayhawks, Dean Smith was on the squad. Many years later he brought his UNC squad to the Cable Car Classic with Michael Jordan (who, as a freshman, couldn’t play)… cool history.
3 Likes
ESPN is going to shill for the SEC, whatever the sport.
3 Likes
When UNC showed up at SCU for the Cable Car, Dean Smith was the first guy off the bus…smoking a cigarette.
3 Likes
I was a high school sophomore. All I remember is Darnell “Dr. Dunk” Hillman (a name he earned in the ABA) leading the Spartans. I found Mark Purdy’s recollections:
1 Like
Torvik has us at a 95.9% chance of making the tournament. It has actually gone up since our loss to Gonzaga.
3 Likes
We’re in. Question is Dayton or not. I put it at 60/40 avoiding
3 Likes