Here’s where I think things stand at the end of today (Wednesday), if you believe the various bracketologists:
- With #42 the cutoff for the bye, there are 6 teams ranked 38-43 that are in contention for that: A&M, NC State, UCF, SCU, Texas, and Missouri. This means that if there are ZERO stolen bids, then only 1 of those 6 teams will have to play in the Dayton play-in round. Knock another one of them down to Dayton for every bid that gets stolen in the A-10, MAC, or MWC.
- Within this group, SCU and Texas are in the clubhouse, and the other 4 teams play tomorrow (Thursday).
- The next group of 4 teams ranked 44-47 are in contention for the last 3 spots in Dayton, where the cutoff is currently at #46: VCU, SMU, Auburn, New Mexico. Again, reduce the # of available spots as bids get stolen.
- Within this group, SMU is in the clubhouse, Auburn & New Mexico play tomorrow, and VCU starts its tournament on Friday.
- Auburn could theoretically move into the “bye” group above if they score multiple upsets in the SEC tournament. NM and VCU probably need to win their tournament to get a bye.
- After that there are three teams that are in the conversation because they are still playing: Oklahoma, SDSU, and Seton Hall. Before Oklahoma goes home, we want them to knock off A&M tomorrow.
- Indiana, Stanford, VT, Cincy, Cal, and WV are all dead (as relates to their chances of passing up SCU) after early losses in their conference tourneys.
- And then we have the four first place teams whom we desperately want to win their conference tournaments to prevent bid stealing: St. Louis U., Miami-OH, Utah St, and USF. USF’s chances of getting an at-large bid (if they suffer a conference tourney loss) seem low, but with all these other bubble teams screwing the pooch, I wonder if they could slip in.
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Here are tomorrow’s (Thursday 3/12) games that affect SCU. Bold represents needle-moving upset opportunities.
8 AM Miami-OH vs UMass (MAC quarterfinal) - We want Miami to win their tourney.
9 AM NC State vs Virginia (ACC quarters) - We’re competing with NCSU for the bye.
9:30 Missouri vs Kentucky (SEC 2nd round) - We’re competing with Missouri for the bye.
11:30 Seton Hall vs Creighton (Big East quarters) - Very low chance of affecting us.
12 PM UCF vs Arizona (Big 12 quarters) - We’re competing with UCF for the bye.
12 PM Auburn vs Tennessee (SEC 2nd round) - Will no one rid me of this meddlesome 11th place team?
12 PM Utah St vs UNLV (MWC quarters) - We want Utah St to win their tourney.
1 PM Akron vs Buffalo (MAC quarters) - I’m listing this game because Akron is the greatest threat to beating Miami-OH to steal a bid. If somebody else upsets them, that helps to clear the path for Miami-OH to keep it a one-bid league.
6 PM San Diego St vs Colorado St (MWC quarters) - SDSU ain’t catching SCU without winning their tournament.
6:30 Oklahoma vs A&M (SEC 2nd round) - We want Oklahoma to win this, in order to knock A&M below SCU in the battle for the bye. A&M might stay ahead of us regardless.
8:30 New Mexico vs San Jose St (MWC quarters) - Shocking upset by SJSU over Boise St clears the path for an easier game for New Mexico. NM probably isn’t passing SCU unless they win their tournament.
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hi folks! longtime lurker of this site and love the community and discussion here. i am so excited about bronco basketball, anxiously awaiting selection sunday - has been my dream to watch broncos in a tourney since i was a kid.
for anyone interested, ive also started a subreddit for broncos basketball that i would love to get traction in.
not sure if this community likes reddit, but they’ve got some great tools for live game threads etc. this community is special, was just thinking on reddit we might be able to get a broader reach too. if anyone wants to be a mod please let me know!! hope to see you there
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Bennett should’ve had one since two 30’s and a 60 carry over from the first half. I only remember him taking one of each near the end. And, he always saves one to stick his kid in for a few ticks once the game is decided.
Miami-OH goes down to the #8 seed. I’d say I can’t believe it, except that it happened to us three straight years from ‘95-97.
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Miami (OH) going down. I don’t think this is bad for us. I think this actually pushes them down into the Last Four In. There’s no way the committee can shut them out of the tournament after the regular season they had.
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The math of it all confuses me, but I think you are right that IF Miami-OH drops below us then it’s neutral to our chances of getting the bye. Miami-OH just replaces Auburn (or whomever) as one of the 4 at-large teams below us. I’m not at all convinced that Miami-OH will drop down to the “first 4” group…. that will for sure be one of the storylines for Selection Sunday.
The additional auto-bid does incrementally increase our chances of missing the tournament entirely, but I think we have enough cushion not to worry about that.
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He had a timeout, here is clip of final 34 seconds:
Lunardi just tweeted his updated “last 4 byes”, etc. after Miami-OH’s loss. He notably had Miami-OH comfortably in above the “last 4 byes”. Now he’s been known to change his mind from day to day. For example, between last night and this morning “upon further review” he moved Texas below us and moved UCF ahead of us. Will be interesting to see where Miami-OH shows up in some of the other mock brackets.
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Lunardi updated it 15 minutes later and now has Miami-OH in Last Four In.
Miami OH’s metrics definitely don’t support them of being in the top 42. But you can’t ignore an undefeated regular season. Committee has to give them a chance to play their way into the field of 64.
This development will definitely lead to the remaining bubble teams playing their butts off for the rest of the weekend.
Ha! I appreciate that Lunardi does this for all of us obsessive fans, but he can be sloppy in his effort to get these out as fast as possible.
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This Kentucky-Mizzou game is a nailbiter. Fun to watch.
Hopefully all these losses by these teams around us in the metrics just gets us out of the “Last Four In” category. Maybe VCU the lone threat remaining.
I think Miami losing now (vs. to Akron) was good. Akron loss they prob stay ahead of us.
I just want to avoid Dayton!!
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The dominos sure are falling our way. Next up is UCF right now (hope they get crushed by AZ) and then A&M tonight (hope they get upset by Oklahoma). If both those go our way, we could be in really good shape and the only remaining threat will be bid stealing.
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@BroncoHoops5 - I think what you’re saying is that IF Miami-OH was gonna lose, it’s awesome that they embarrassed themselves vs an 8 seed, instead of going down in the semis or finals. If that’s what you mean, then I couldn’t agree more. Not as clean & clear cut as if they simply won their conference tourney, but this is the 2nd best result. Now it’s up to the committee to send them to Dayton instead of us. Fingers & toes crossed!
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Man, the other three of Lunardi’s current last four byes either lost (Mizzou, NC State) or are losing with a very tough team in front of them (UCF v. ‘Zona).
There’s still a nightmare bid stealing scenario out there (and Miami losing is part of it)… but the luck thus far has been unreal. Lots of the twitter graphics and bubble discussion I see doesn’t even involve Santa Clara anymore.
Hard to believe. Especially considering how I felt at halftime against Saint Mary’s.
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