i am so glad someone is keeping on top of this. thanks!
6 Likes
Good work, Rock. Very digestible summary.
1 Like
Seems like if there’s any chance to missing this whole party, it would involve:
- SLU Losing, VCU making the title game, with Dayton winning the auto-bid.
- SDSU beating Utah State.
- Ole Miss winning the SEC Tournament.
- Charlotte winning the American Title
And then having the committee view VCU and USF more favorably than SCU, in contravention of essentially every metric and bracketeer?
The marginal probably of all the above happening is really quite low, and even if does, Santa Clara is at worst in Dayton? I’m trying to get prepared to be disappointed, but it’s hard not to feel pretty good.
What a time to be alive!
4 Likes
A random observation of little importance…
Looking at ESPN’s current Bracketology, their Last 4 Byes are UCF, NC State, Miami (OH) and SCU…….3 of the 4 Sendek head coaching gigs.
Means nothing of course but an odd coincidence.
4 Likes
I just wanted to take a moment to recognize how special tomorrow is. We’re all passionate sports fans, but when our favorite pro team wins whether NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, it is more “they won” or “they lost”. We didn’t play for them. We didn’t work for them. Many, of us on this board, attended SCU and gave 4 years of our lives there. There is a sense of pride and ownership. WE ARE BRONCOS! Tomorrow, our name will be called for the first time in 30 years, and no matter where we’re sent and who we play, I have no doubt that everyone here will smile broadly when we hear “Santa Clara”……..GO BRONCOS!!!
13 Likes
Rock has clearly been doing great work here. But I find myself oscillating between two thoughts:
- We need to pass the hat and compensate Rock for the phenomenal work and copious updates.
- We need to ban Rock for feeding the neurotic Bronco hoops addiction of many of us on this board.
13 Likes
@92bronc Haha. The truth is my CPA nerd brain just HAD to know all of the scenarios, and once I did it for myself I figured it would be a waste not to share it with my new internet friends! I did a similar thing on a Notre Dame board during this past college football season…. Let’s all hope that our Selection Sunday turns out better than theirs did!
4 Likes
Well said Pistol, we will be “live” at Leavey for the selection show. This milestone hopefully renews the pride in MBB and SCU sports after a 30 year funding and focus sabbatical. Hopefully the start of long string of NCAA’s!!!
7 Likes
Agreed. It may be a better fit for the “Building on Success” thread (which I intend to draft a huge reply on after the season…I have a lot of thoughts)…but winning and making the tournament helps gets butts in seats and generate buzz more than anything else.
We can do it again without graves…but really hope he comes back to elevate his draft stock. Could come down to how much he enjoys March madness and how well he plays.
8 Likes
While watching various other games the CBS analysts would update the bracketology situation and it gave me a great deal of pride to see the SCU logo ahead of some pretty national brands. At the time we were the first of the, “last 4 byes”. Super charged up!
4 Likes
The final Bauer Bubble Watch upgrades SCU to “Safe.” Bauer has been slightly on the conservative side about SCU since the SMC win and even here leaves open the possibility that some .1% nightmare scenario could still play out (i.e. every potential bid thief wins the auto-bid and some bad luck in the committee room. But his final point is that, short of that nightmare scenario, SCU is in with room to spare:
Also, the Bracket Matrix just updated with SCU holding serve as the last consensus 10-seed.
6 Likes
@getnashty outlined a potential disaster scenario where we get snubbed entirely. While I’m not sweating about it, I agree with him that it’s not completely outside the realm of possibility. Here’s my disaster scenario:
- The consensus last 3 in right now seem to be Texas, VCU, and SMU.
- Let’s assume for the sake of argument that the committee has greater respect for the SEC and doesn’t really think Texas is on the cutline. That puts VCU and SMU as the last 2 in.
- Currently there are 3 bids that can realistically be stolen. I listed a 4th earlier for South Florida, but that seems remote, so let’s concentrate on the 3 plausible ones: A-10, SDSU, and Ole Miss.
- If only 2 of those 3 bids get stolen, we are fine. The victims will be SMU and the at-large bid that’s currently pegged to VCU, which would be flipped to an at-large bid pegged to SLU (confusing, I know).
- But if all 3 bids get stolen, then SOMEONE is gonna go home shocked. That someone will have to be one of the following 8 teams:
- St. Louis U.
- Texas A&M
- NC St
- UCF
- SCU
- Miami-OH
- Missouri
- Texas
So the nightmare scenario would that: (a) we find ourselves in that game of musical chairs; (b) they decide that A&M, NC St, and UCF are all clearly ahead of SCU which is not unreasonable; (c) the committee has a strong SEC bias and can’t decide between Missouri & Texas so they wimp out and simply rank both of them in ahead of SCU; and (d) they don’t have the courage to send Miami-OH home after an undefeated regular season, which I actually agree with.
Sorry for pissing in everyone’s cheerios with that. To be clear, I’m not worried about this. I’ve had a bottle of champagne in my fridge since halftime of the Gonzaga game and I expect to drink it tomorrow. To me, this is more like a countdown. I agree with Bauer that we are “safe” and that I think we will upgrade to “lock” as soon as Ole Miss loses this afternoon or tomorrow, or Utah St wins later today, or if SLU wins today & tomorrow. But if all three of those bids get stolen, then it’ll be “hold onto your butts” during the selection show.
3 Likes
Dayton and SLU tied with about 2 min left. Root hard for the Billikens. Like Rock is saying, SCU probably eliminates all worst case scenarios, no matter how remote, if SLU wins the A-10 Tournament.
2 Likes
This is a nail biter
1 Like
Unbelievable sequence with under 30 secs to play.
2 Likes
Shouldn’t that be a technical foul for that dumbass Dayton benchwarmer running on the court with time left on clock? SLU should have seen that and inbounded it to force the ref to call it.
3 Likes
Brutal finish. Agreed on the potential T there… need VCU to deliver today & tomorrow.
2 Likes
The hope is that with SLU’s late season collapse, they end up on Dayton, trading spots with VCU. I don’t think that’s super likely, but I think it’s possible with predictive metrics now being pretty down on SLU.
The guy who tipped that in had his off hand on top of Avila’s head. I believe in letting guys play at the end of the game, but that’s a little extreme.
1 Like
How was that not a technical foul? He came on the floor before SLU called timeout and before the refs stopped the play to check on the time.
2 Likes