Week 8 Review; Week 9 Look-ahead

Week 8 Review:

  • No real upsets this week.
  • Broncos clinch 3rd
  • SMC and GU win out for the week setting up their end of season matchup for 1st place (and ESPN shows up for College Gameday).
  • 0-2 week for Pacific drops them out of contention for 3rd and even 4th is a longshot.
  • BYU continues to lose…now guaranteed of a losing record in their final season in the WCC.

Week 9 Look-ahead:
Thurs Games: Pepp @ SCU; Pacific @ SMC; USD @ Gonzaga; Portland @ USF. Byes: LMU and BYU
Sat Games: SCU @ USD; Portland @ Pacific; USF @ BYU; LMU @ Pepp; SMC @ GU.

  • LMU more or less has 4th place locked down…USF or Pacific would need to win both games and LMU just to tie LMU.
  • 4-way battle for 5th through 8th with 4 teams 1 game apart and several head to head matchups between them in the final week.
  • SMC at GU with ESPN Gameday will be interesting. The Kennel will be hoping.

Standings after week 8:
SMC - 13-1
GU - 12-2
SCU - 9-5
LMU - 8-7
Pacific - 6-8
USF - 6-8
BYU - 6-9
Portland - 5-9
USD - 4-10
Pepperdine - 2-12


I know that it is a lot to ask, but have we seen a single game where Podz, Justice AND Stewart were all hot from the 3-pt line? We may need a performance like that if we want a shot to get to the WCC final game.

When there are multiple hot hands from outside, it can really open up things for the guys down low.

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I think last game was their best collective effort from 3 on the year(6-10, 4-8, 3-8). But you are right that one of the Big 3 is typically cold, which is why getting the increased bench production late in the season has made us so much more consistent as a team.


I think the X factor in the past 5 games has been the bigs coming off the bench. They are a threat and as such - it creates openings out on the 3. Defense has to worry about inside and out now - which is not something teams have had to worry so much in the past. Typically, our inside game had gone stagnant in the games - leaving it easier for defense to defend the perimeter.

This should pan out long term with more outside opportunities that are uncontested and MIGHT get you the hot hand from all 3 of our shooters.


We are currently projected to be on the same side of the bracket with Gonzaga, BYU, Pepperdine, and Pacific.

I actually prefer having GU in the semis when they’re a little more likely to be a little complacent and have (slightly) less fan energy. I think the last really great SCU performance against GU in Vegas was Brownridge’s senior year in the semis.

The rest of the teams are a minefield. Such is parity, I guess. I don’t want to face BYU again. Or even Pepperdine if SCU gets the victory today. Pacific is actually the team I would have the most confidence against. I don’t think they’ll drain 17 threes again.

SCU has its best odds of winning the tournament in a decade. And probably its worst odds of even getting out of the first game with a victory.


I agree. I feel its a semi-final or even finals for us if we get out of round 1.

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Not to be technical, but we advance to the semis after 1 win.


yeah, the tournament is structured with byes (for seeds 5 and 6), double-byes (for seeds 3 and 4) and triple-byes (for top-2 seeds). SMC and GU go straight into the semi-final games.

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Right, GU in the semis with one win. I guess I’m saying that the matchup with whoever comes to meet SCU in the quarters is likely to be about as tough an opponent as ever given league parity.

EDIT: I see, you were responding to BF.

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If win the next two, win in round one, beat GU in the semis, then lose in the finals, do we make the NCAAs?

Just a thought experiment. We’d be 25-9, I think.

but one of those wins is against a non-NCAA D1 team (Menlo College). So really, 24-9. Not sure it would be enough. The SJSU loss really hurt our chances for an at-large. Also, the narrow losses to GU and SMC at home…if we could have pulled off one of those two, perhaps our NET rating would be much higher. We only have one Quad 1 win.

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I agree. I think SCU would have to notch wins against both GU and SMC to be on the bubble (still likely outside). But if Santa Clara wins both, they’ve got the autobid anyways.


It’s been 15 years since someone not named Gonzaga or st Mary’s has won in Vegas…

15 years since even the runner hasn’t been byu/smc/Gonzaga.

Bout time we change one of those stats.

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And technically, usd’s win in 2008 was in San Diego… so nobody has had any “luck” in Vegas besides the Big 2

change your math if the first one is BYU, then GU? Three wins over BYU and one over GU on the season?

I think we’re still on the outside cusp.

Too bad Cal, NMSU and a few others that shoulda been top 150 wins or so had aberrational bad years - I think NMSU ended up cancelling their season. That’s such our luck.

Irvine, Boise State and UCF are having good to decent years.

I don’t think we receive an at large even if we sweep this week and then win two in conference tournament, albeit an upset win over GU or SMC in conference semi’s.

On another note…post season projections are being updated almost daily. Latest from DRatings NIT had Broncos a #4 seed (1st round home game)…projected opponent Va Tech, although the NIT does look at appealing geographical matchups in the first round based on what I’ve observed with past tournaments.

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BYU just isn’t good enough this year to move the needle. The Broncos could beat BYU five times, and it wouldn’t get them in the tournament.

Last year’s USF squad is the template. They had wins against Davidson, Towson, UAB, Arizona St, Fresno State, and UNLV in the OOC. All were top-100 wins. Then they swept SCU and got one versus BYU. So three more top-100 wins. All that combined was good for 9-8 against the first two quadrants.

SCU is currently 4-6 in the first two quadrants and can’t really go any better than 7-6 with wins over BYU or USF* plus GU and SMC. I think it would get SCU to at least bubble status, maybe like Next Four Out. But I still think it wouldn’t be enough (autobid notwithstanding).

The opportunities just weren’t there, in large part due to teams just not panning out to be as good. Wyoming should have been a Quad 1 win. It’s well into Quad 3 territory.

*And that would require BYU/USF moving into the top-75 NET which I think is pretty unlikely.

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Yeah - I keep forgetting we have an “interesting” structure in the WCC.

Can ANYONE explain how BYU is still AHEAD of Santa Clara in the Kenpom Pomeroy ratings?