Today’s action has a few #1 seeds that probably need to win their conference tournament to get in. I don’t think any of these have the resume to acquire an at large bid with a loss, Iona or Florida Atlantic possibly?? So, losses by these teams below will more than likely eat up a NIT bid(s).
FIU…Conf USA…(9:30am PST - Semi)
Toledo …MAC…(2pm PST - Semi)
Howard…MEAC…(3pm PST - Semi)
Iona…MAAC…(3pm PST - Semi)
UC Irvine…Big West…(6pm PST - Semi)
Sam Houston…WAC…(6:30 PST - Semi)
Iona’s computer numbers are such a mystery to me. They’re a bit like SMC in that they seem to have broken the code a little bit to stay way higher in the computers than their resume would justify. If you just look at record and opponents, no way do you take Iona over SCU. But somehow Iona has always floated (fairly significantly) above Santa Clara in the computers.
SCU should get their math and stats departments on the payroll to figure out whatever SMC and Iona did this year.*
*For the record, SMC is way better than Iona. I’m just comparing them in terms of their computer outperformance to resume.
Agree Patty.
Illustrates these supposedly advanced metrics are still very far from perfect. Up and down both NET and Torvik you’ll find some oddities.
Looking at Torvik, Iona is #70 to the Broncos #77. Iona did have a decent non-con schedule mostly a result of few truly weak opponents (#197 - Pepperdine was their weakest non-con) and played 7 teams in the top 120, four in the top 100. But their conf was very weak…2nd best team in their conf is #183 Quinnipiac, all other teams are ranked below #217. End result is their overall Strength of Schedule is ~#220 compared to the Broncos 90.
Iona, 0-3 (incl loss to us) in Quad 1 & 2 games. Broncos played many more (10) Quad 1 & 2 with a 4-6 record. And full season records of Iona (25-7) to the Broncos (23-9). You’d think the much stronger schedule and 4 more Quad 1 or 2 wins would outweigh the minor 2 win advantage of Iona.
Overall doesn’t add up.
Spot on Patty… if the NCAA is gonna use algorithms to do part of their selection, why not find a way to make yourself shine in the rankings. It’s something that you actually have control over with scheduling. Why not control the hell out of it and shape things to your advantage?
You can try to schedule based on program norms (ie- try to schedule a lot of typically 50 to 125 -ish teams) but you don’t have control over how their seasons actually turn out. If several teams end up having worse than expected seasons, it drags your rankings down.
One thing we should probably do if we want to nudge rankings up is play decent teams in actual road games instead of home or neutral which might push some wins in to higher Quad rankings. Over-weighted home schedules might drop some decent wins from Quad 1 to 2 or 2 to 3.
And IMO there isn’t much of ahome advantage either way against many of the decent teams we’ve played of late (ie- Stanford, Irvine, Boise St.)…Utah St. probably the most notable exception.
Have the mascot “Gaels” subtracts 25 from your NET ranking… don’t you read the footnotes?
maybe God really is a Gael??? 
Agreed. It’s not a perfect science, but simply put quit scheduling those habitually crappy teams… we play more than enough of those games in WCC play already.
SCU dropped one spot from the lowest #3 seed to highest #4 seed with this morning’s DRatings NIT projection. A #4 seed would present a 1st round home game.
Both Sam Houston (WAC) and UC Irvine (Big West) lost their respective semi final games last night, thus two more NIT bids are now filled.
Today’s #1 seeds in need of a win today:
Vermont…Am. East Final…8am PST
Yale…Ivy Semi Final…8am PST
Howard…MEAC Final…10am PST
Toledo…MAC Final…4:30pm PST
Iona…MAAC Final…4:30pm PST
Fla Atlantic…C-USA Final…5:30pm PST
Amongst this group, Florida Atlantic looks to have the best resume and may get an at large even with a loss.
Iona…I know they have been discussed by this board and are not deserving of an at large with a loss today even with the Pitino factor. Note: Iona is a 15 pt favorite in today’s final vs #11 seed Marist. A loss would be shocking IMO.
Rest of Field…Loss will result in NIT bid.
I don’t expect ALL 6 to win today, but we can hope that 4-5 take care of business.
Pistol- Thanks for the frequent and detailed updates, much appreciated!
You bet 92bronc…Let’s hope you will be putting together a NIT preview/recap for our Broncos.
Dont think they are going to NIT
Femme…You probably have a stronger pulse on this than we do. I’m assuming Cam doesn’t think we’ll be selected??
Hmm Barking Crow and John Templon both still have SCU in and not an imminent bubble risk as of today. Barking Crow’s predicted number of NIT autobids has actually gone down, making SCU somewhat safer in that projection.
Patty…I agree with you. I saw Barking Crow today, and we’re projected as a #5 seed at Sam Houston St, but look to be in rather safely. I’m not familiar with the other site, John Templon? Where are we projected there?
DRatings updated their projection this morning and SCU is comfortably in as the highest rated #4 seed.
#4 seed for Templon as well.
Hope so as this squad deserves to be in the NIT. Missing the NCAA when you have a real chance can be quite a let down. Hopefully after a few days to think about it they are itching to play.
I asked if any word and he said the will know tomorrow. We have been out of the loop while he is fighting to get back his strength and regain the rapid weight loss from the virus that hit him in Vegas.
It was a good day yesterday for #1 seeds with Iona, Howard, Vermont, and Yale all winning. Yale plays Princeton in IVY League Final today. A Yale loss sends them to the NIT and reduces another at large.
Toledo was the only #1 seed to lose yesterday and thus received bid to NIT.
Bottom line: Broncos should be in really good shape for NIT selection regardless of Yale-Princeton outcome. DRatings moved SCU up a slot this morning to the lowest #3 seed. This will mean a first round home game if this projection becomes reality.
Lastly, I believe ESPNU is carrying NIT Selection Show at 6pm PST but please don’t hold me to that and check your guide.
GO BRONCOS!!!
Hope he feels better!