Maybe it’s the pessimism in me but I could see some Selection Committee shenanigans with that LUC loss & an SEC powerplay that puts SCU in Dayton
I’d love to be wrong
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With SCU’s WAB so high relative to other true bubble teams (higher than SLU now after yesterday’s loss), it’s hard for me to see the committee sending SCU to Dayton, especially if VCU wins today. But they’ve done other mystifying things in the past, usually to the detriment of schools like Santa Clara, so the caution is warranted.
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Honestly we shouldn’t fear being an 11-seed. It’s actually more likely to make a Cinderella run as an 11-seed. If you pull off the 6/11 upset, your next matchup is a 3-seed (overall 9-12 team). Winning a 7/10 matchup means your next game is against a 2-seed (overall 5-8 team).
The recent surprise teams to make Cinderella runs were 11-seeds: NC State (2024), UCLA (2021), Loyola-Chicago (2018). 10-seeds generally do not have great success in the tournament.
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I think the sentiment in the Athletic offices is WAB carries the higher weight notwithstanding high major biases…
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Where we stand (30 years in the wilderness edition):
Of the 7 bracketology updates that I’ve been following, one of them (Bauer) hasn’t updated its bracket since Miami-OH and SLU lost, and Delphi hasn’t updated theirs since SLU lost. Of the other five, 4 of them gave us a bye and only CBS thinks we’re among the “last 4 in”. The main difference is that CBS likes Texas and gave them a bye, whereas everybody else has SCU ahead of Texas. I think there are 4 wildcards that will determine our fate - Texas, Miami-OH, St. Louis U, and UCF.
- Texas - Before the final week of their regular season, nobody even had Texas in their last 4 byes. Then they dropped like an anchor after getting crushed at Arkansas, an overtime loss at home vs Oklahoma, and a tournament loss to Ole Miss. Is it possible that the various bracketologists overreacted to those losses in real time? Because with the benefit of hindsight, all three of those teams finished their seasons very strongly, rolling off multiple wins after beating Texas, so my concern would be that the committee may evaluate those losses in a more forgiving light.
- Miami-OH - There seems to be some groupthink among the bracketologists that the committee is going to tell Miami-OH to “prove it” in the play-in round. Is that really based on anything? I know their schedule was crap, but how can anybody say that Santa Clara or any other bubble team would have done better than 1-loss against Miami’s schedule? There’s not a lot of precedent to really be able to predict what the committee will do with them.
- St. Louis U. - One of the limitations of all these mock brackets is that as the season progresses they have a tendency to bank each 1st place team into the bracket without really measuring them against bubble teams. Sure, you can see what seed they’re in, but do we really know how much rigor they put into that? Then a team like St. Louis U. drops a game in their conference tourney and they suddenly scramble to slot them ahead & behind other teams that they haven’t needed to compare them to until now. On3 placed SLU as the 2nd to last bye, two spots behind SCU; but ESPN and SI don’t have them in their “last 4 byes”. Is that because they really think SLU is that good, or because they just didn’t even think about it?
- UCF - I don’t think there’s anything particularly unique about UCF, it’s just that they are just ahead of SCU in some brackets and just behind us in others.
Here’s where we are in the brackets I’ve been following:
- ESPN - 2nd to last bye, ahead of UCF. They have us as a 10 seed vs Kentucky in St. Louis.
- CBS - 4th to last team in, behind Texas. They have us in the First Four round playing SMU in Dayton.
- On3 - The most favorable of all, 4th to last bye, ahead of NC St, SLU, and UCF. 10 seed vs Miami in Philadelphia.
- USA Today - Bye (they don’t say which order). 10 seed vs Utah St. in Philadelphia.
- Sports Illustrated - Last bye, behind UCF. 10 seed vs Miami (they don’t say where).
- Delphi (not updated for the SLU loss) - Bye (they don’t say which order, and we don’t know if the SLU loss would push us into their “Last 4 In”. They have us as 10 seed vs Kentucky in St. Louis.
Other than CBS, the consensus seems to be that the teams sent to Dayton will be Missouri, Miami-OH, SMU, and Texas. If I had to pull a number out of my ass, I’d say we have a 66.6666 (repeating) percent chance to get the bye. But remember that 21.12% of statistics are completely made up.
Go Broncos!!!
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@filipinobronco - I agree 100% that #11 seeds have a much better shot to make the Sweet 16 than #10 seeds. Unfortunately, I think that after Miami-OH and SLU’s losses they’ve run out of #11 seeds for at-large teams, other than the 4 teams that are going to Dayton. If we get a bye, it’s probably gonna be a #10 seed, unless they re-arrange the seeding order to prevent rematches.
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Lunardi now has us in Dayton, playing Miami O.
Just saw that too. But if you scroll down, it still shows us in the “last 4 byes” group. So it might just be a glitch. Lunardi is sloppy as hell.
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Thanks, I figured the “World Wide Leader” would have competent editing. I’ll scroll all the way down next time.
It’s possible that he really intends to have Missouri switch places with us, but hasn’t updated the summary at the bottom (because he’s sloppy). That would be weird as hell because nothing has actually happened to make him change his mind. Fortunately that bracket is just one dude’s opinion and as far as I know isn’t based on any inside info. Someone here said that Lunardi hasn’t had great accuracy in the past.
I heard that Lunardi has only missed once on the field of 68 in the last couple years. Is that possible?
Possible. There really are only a few toss ups.
I think bracket matrix is really decided by the seeding.
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The Athletic still has SCU at 10 as of 11:32 pdt. Of course the only decision that matters is the committee.
Lunardi has us with a bye again. I’m just looking for reinforcement…
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I actually think we’ll look back and say that Gonzaga’s loss to Portland, which inserted us into the bracket as a brief first place AQ, was pivotal to our ultimate at-large bid.
It started some bracket/poll momentum in my opinion.
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Just boarded a flight from Dublin to London wearing my SCU hat and spotted a guy with an SMU hat. We had a quick exchange about our respective bubble teams. That kind of interaction has never happened to me before.
And earlier this afternoon, I was enjoying a Guinness at a pub when a gentleman noticed my hat and congratulated me on making the dance.
First time for everything!
Go Broncos!
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Agree ‘Nashty. While it’s supposed to be about the metrics, good wins and bad losses, etc. The process is less than scientific and narratives, momentum and media mentions do matter and impact outcomes, IMO. Then when the metrics support a mid-major, as they do for us, it keeps you legitimately in the discussion and in the public consciousness.
https://barttorvik.com/teamsheets.php
Looking at this, I don’t see how the committee could put UCF or Missouri ahead of us. UCF is strong on Resume metrics and Poor on Quality. Missouri is “meh” on both. BPI is our only weak link and even that is Top 50.
Lunardi is known to be accurate with the teams that make the tourney, but less accurate with the seeding.
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CBS Sports has steadily predicted we’d be in Dayton.
They now seem to have fallen in line with a number of other bracketologists and have Mizzou-MiamiOH and Texas-SMU in Dayton. They forecast SCU as a 10 seed going up against Utah State in the West Region.
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